This is NOT math

What I'm getting at is that yes, dummy scrolling is somewhat pointless because how can one predict what the program dictates the random sequence unless we were staring at the code itself doing work. I'm largely unconvinced by its effectiveness and consistency. I WILL say that I've tried it ONCE, and it's a decent way to not have your items blown up consistently (I scrolled a cent with only 30%s and dummies. No boom). But it's not a foolproof method as individual scrolling is a single episodic event. If this were a thing, GMS and KMS would've snuffed it out and banned it from the game.

 

Rather than a coin toss method, a raffle is a lot more of an accurate simulation of what maplestory scrolling is like.

 

If the game were to be fair then the game should draw from a Bernoulli distribution with chance p (with p being 10% for 10% scrolls, for example). Dont know if that is the case. =)

 

All random numbers generated by computer algorithm are not truly random. The trick is to make the algorithm so complex and hide all relevant information from the users, so that they cannot predict it and thus it seems "random".

If the RNG is any good, I doubt that dummy scrolling has much effect.

But then again, when it comes to equip drops, I could swear your chances for item drop fluctuates noticeably when you change channels or maps...

 

I wonder if there are ways to confirm these theories...perhaps they might work. But then again, I scrolled an 11 att yellow marker in ch1 Kerning and 16 INT robe in broad daylight in ch1 FM. I dunno.

 

Does broad daylight mean using dummy scrolling or not?

FYI, any hacker could potentially modify their packets in front of other players, and they'd be none the wiser. So having a bunch of witnesses to see you scroll doesn't necessarily prove anything.

 

Like scrolled in a crowded FM. Sorry for colloquial language

 

Of course there is a small "error", since it is a computer code, but this error is really small if it is a good code. Would be fun to actually see what maple uses.

About fluctuating drop rates when switching channel.. I used to believe in that as well but it is just superstition =)

 

RNG. 100% luck, no skill or anything involved.

 

This is how statistics work. It's like how with birth you have a 50% chance of having a boy and 50% chance of having a girl, yet some people have 10 kids and they're all the same sex.
The chance of success is individual for each time you scroll. If you use a 60% scroll for example, you have 10x numbers that can be chosen, and 6x of them will mean you succeed. Then a random number is generated and if it's one of those 6x your scroll works. If it isn't, it doesn't work.
This is why dummy scrolls don't work, and you can scroll 100 times and there is no guarantee 60% of them will work.
It is math, you just misunderstood it.

 

10% will be 10%
30% will be 30%
60% will be 60%
70% will be 70%
Its just how this shit goes.

 

Yea I was about to say..
The chances doesn't stack, with every single 10% scroll you have a 10% chance to pass it, if you fail it because of the 90%, the next scroll will still have a 10% to pass and 90% to fail.

 

Pretty sure PRNG is based on binomial distribution. You can do all kind of maths on how your actions will give you better or worse results. At some degree, you can certainly predict outcomes using chance theory. It's all solid maths right there.

But that is only accurate if your actions are the only thing that affect the distribution. Which is not the case here. The generator you use, uses the same state as someone else in game. Which makes it so that other people have an effect on your results. You simply can not apply any theories unless you would know every instance where the generator is used.

 

There are times when I succeed half of my 60%'s scrolls (as I experienced with horrible results...) whereas I landed 7-8 scrolls in a row in succession on another day (hooray for 18STR/7DEX overalls!) But in any case, each scroll used is a separate phenomenon and it has not been a properly investigated (or cannot be investigated) matter.

 

I've had some good luck with 30%'s and I've boomed more equips with 70%'s lol

60's have been 50/50 for me, and 10%'s have been pretty good too.

Depends on the randomness. When I fail 2 30s, I feel better that the 3rd one will work.

Sometimes if 1 does work on the first try, I'll try to luck it and get a 2nd one on there.

Go by feel !