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Ravana Helm(0) exchange rate

Discussion in 'Closed/Resolved' started by AioriaX, Apr 3, 2020.

  1. Gurk
    Online

    Gurk Nightshadow

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    Mar 9, 2020
    Male
    12:56 AM
    Gxrk
    Hero, Bishop, Marksman, Shadower, Buccaneer, Corsair
    trash.PNG

    Did the exchange rate for helms get accidentally reverted to the garbage vanilla TMS rates again by any chance?

    The legends rates for the helms should more or less have a uniform distribution (my good friend TTKirnkTTKirnk recorded 13 of the Ravana (0) helm in 51 exchanges in the past for reference). Not the largest sample size from me but I haven't seen any Ravana (0) helms in the 14 exchanges I've done since patch, which should have a 1.78% chance of occurring. I've also talked to someone who said that they haven't gotten one either in the last 2 weeks, which has a ~0.05% chance of happening assuming it should be 1 in 4.

    Would normally just assume bad luck but seeing as the rates have been reverted on more than one occasion in the past, I thought I'd ask before I get any deeper with these exchanges.
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2023
  2. brunandes
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    brunandes Windraider

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    3:56 PM
    I have honestly never seen it being 1 in 4 before. I usually get 1 helm after at least a couple weeks.
     
  3. Gurk
    Online

    Gurk Nightshadow

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    Mar 9, 2020
    Male
    12:56 AM
    Gxrk
    Hero, Bishop, Marksman, Shadower, Buccaneer, Corsair
    Sounds like the vanilla TMS rates to me. It's been a long while since I've checked into rav helm exchanges so the reversion, if there was one at all, may not be new.

    I don't know if it's actually 1 in 4 but TTKirnk's dataset seems convincing enough. If the rate was actually 1 in 20, the probability of him getting at least 13 good helms in 51 exchanges would be less than 0.01% (0.123% if 1 in 10). They definitely weren't as rare as getting 1 every few weeks in the past and it was common to get one every few days.
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2023
    • Informative Informative x 1
  4. brunandes
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    brunandes Windraider

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    3:56 PM
    Damn I have been scammed for more than a year.
     
  5. beegoratto
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    beegoratto Zakum

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    12:56 AM
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    I don't have the data for it but I know when Raggy was farming Rav helms she also was getting around 1 in 4, seeing as how she pulled I think around 6 helms in under 30 runs
     
    • Informative Informative x 1

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