P/C P/C on this shield

Easily 300mil+

 

in no way is this 300m as shield can be made for alot less. It may seem as high as this due to our market inflating like crazy and that no one wants to buy things and use them to scroll. Not to mention this would go to heros and paladins only. Seeing as theres one (active remaining) paladin, and most of the heros are 2h users, 300m is definitely a stretch.

 

I MEAN I'D BUY THIS IF I DIDNT SUCK ASS AT MAKING MESO

 

Like i said 300mil+, for the heros and paladins using one handed sword.

 

^ Which is only like 2% of the population of heros/palis

 

Well I'll offer 100m

 

Well that's not really true though... o-o
The shield has 1 30% and 6 60%s or 70%s passed
1 Shield W. Att 30% is ~8-10m in fm
6 Shield W. Att 70%s are ~7-8m each
That's 54m on average (although the real price is about 60+)

The chance of landing all scrolls on the shield is extremely small.
Landing the first one already has a chance of 35% failing and 35% booming and from there on~

60% Scroll
1 consecutive success: 0.6, 60%
2 consecutive success: 0.36, 36%
3 consecutive success: 0.216, 21.6%
4 consecutive success: 0.1296, 12.96%
5 consecutive success: 0.07776, 7.776%
6 consecutive success: 0.046656, 4.6656% ~~~ 5%

70% Scroll
1 consecutive success: 0.7, 70%
2 consecutive success: 0.49, 49%
3 consecutive success: 0.343, 34.3%
4 consecutive success: 0.2401, 24.01%
5 consecutive success: 0.16807, 16.807%
6 consecutive success: 0.117649, 11.7649% ~~~12%

Let's combine these both percentages (assuming he used 3 70% and 3 60%) and there we have 8,5% (9% on average) chance (excluding the pass of the first 30% scroll) to make such a shield.

That means there is a 91,5% (92% on average) chance of failure upon making one.

I did the math and I found out that one would have to use 552.000.000 mesos on average to make the item he has.

I'd say u should keep the shield for personal use until u find someone who would buy it for 300m+ .

 

Analyses like these are flawed because you are assuming that all the times you don't land all 7 scrolls, you are left with zero value.

This is not true. Even if you were to land just 6 scrolls out of 7, that shield would still be quite valuable. Therefore you are significantly overweighting the value of the 7/7 shield to make up for that lost "value".

In my experience, a fair "breakeven" price for a +7 item with 1 30% landed on it is right around 50% of the value suggested by doing what Dean did. This means that if you scrolled this shield a large number of times and sold the +7's for 250m you would eke out a small profit in the long run, ignoring supply/demand issues.

With top quality items like this though, I wouldn't be surprised if people were willing to pay more than that, since the risk in making this is quite high and you should be compensated for that. I'd actually say the initial p/c of 300m is pretty fair if you could find someone that can pay it.

 

Well I just calculated how much it would ~cost to make a 7/7 shield I agree with you though if one wants to risk it he could be left with a valuable item ofcourse but 6/7, 5/7 is not the same as 7/7 haha. But keep in mind it could take a lot of tries if one lacks luck .

 

This is why you shouldn't scroll things unless you plan on using them yourself.