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This is NOT math

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Isuzu, May 22, 2016.

  1. Isuzu
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    Isuzu Timer

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    5:03 AM
    lsuzu/Isuzu
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    I am not a pro maple player, I have never scroll anything myself before, everything I am using is bought. So recently I tried to scroll something myself, and it is when I realise it sucks!

    I first tried to scroll OA dex. I failed around 15 10% scrolls in a row. 0.9^15 = 20.59%, and it happened. After a few days (or maybe week i dont remember), I tried again i think 5 scrolls, failed all too.. So I ended up buying a DEX 21 theif oa from fm and sold all my 30% scrolls and 60% scrolls.. Funny thing is, on another account doing kpq, I scrolled bottomwear for def 10%, helmet for def 10%, both of them passed!! 0.1^2= 1%, and it happened..

    My current claw, 7 60% only 4 passed.. 0.4^3 = 6.4%

    Then, I was very lucky to get a 50 w.atk craven from Manon. I first used 4 30% dummy scrolls, they all failed (which i think is a good thing, the fifth one is most probably success). But the fifth one, CFA 30% failed too... 5 30% scrolls failed in a row, 0.7^5 = 16.81% , and it happened.

    AND cape, I got 2 quest capes, one from papulatus quest and another from korean folk town quest.. They both boomed by 30% scrolls..

    And now this bow, 7 60% scrolls, only 3 passed. 4 failed, 0.4^4 = 2.56%, and it happened..

    THEN, first tt20, failed.. I have been hunting Dark Wyvern for hours few days ago, no shadow shifter 20 dropped. Yesterday I used 2 shadow shifter 20 (1 bought 1 got from guildies <3), both failed too..

    Is it normal to be like this? I dont remember I have passed any 30% scrolls so far. I dont know if I am doing the math right but in a nutshell, THIS IS STUPID and I am done with scrolling
    Bow.png claw.png
     
    • Like Like x 1
  2. fryber
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    fryber Windraider

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    "Such is Life"
     
    • Like Like x 2
  3. rewyuio
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    rewyuio Selkie Jr.

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    Welcome to our world. I think i have a spare shifter lying around, ill pass it to you
     
    • Like Like x 2
  4. OP
    OP
    Isuzu
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    Isuzu Timer

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    Thanks a lot and it passed!
     
    • Like Like x 1
  5. Gi
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    Gi Windraider

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    That's not maths indeed. First chance is 29% (the most likely outcome actually). The second one is 19% (the third most likely outcome). Check out this calculator: https://www.easycalculation.com/statistics/binomial-distribution.php.
     
    • Like Like x 5
  6. Diego
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    Diego Capt. Latanica

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    11:03 PM
    Although I think he means the failure rate. But still, needs to take account of all scrolls used.
     
  7. Jente
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    Jente Brown Teddy

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    Your math makes no sense :p But you can't expect things to work at first try... You can't even expect things to work on the 40th try! You can't ever expect things to work.
    I spend over 1,2b trying to scroll a damn Dragon revolver (40ish guns f3), my best results so far: 2/3 30% working on an above average gun (4 slots left but I'm a pussy) and 3 30% working on an average gun but then 4/4 60% failed...
    SCROLLING SUCKS OKAY
     
    • Like Like x 3
  8. Diego
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    Diego Capt. Latanica

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    I haven't landed a single 30% on a gun, all of them boomed :(
     
    • Like Like x 4
  9. Jess
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    Jess Pac Pinky

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    It's all luck. I've been playing around with gun 10%s. Best I got is 3/7 on a concerto. I've also really gotten lucky some days going 5/7 and 5/9 with random 10% scrolls.
     
  10. Hyoon
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    Hyoon Zakum Retired Staff

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    12:03 AM
    It's really based on luck.
    Scrolling a few items won't generate the scrolls success rate efficiently.
    Similar to flipping a coin twice, just because it lands heads twice doesn't mean that the coin is not working properly.
    There needs to be a bigger yield of attempts to generate the 50% chance of either side.

    I've made stuff like this (5 scrolls consecutively)
    [​IMG]

    and I've also boomed 8 30%'s in a row.
    It happens, it's all luck based.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  11. Jente
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    Jente Brown Teddy

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    Haha I got a 3/7 concerto too! Then the weapon crafter took it instead of the concerto's that were IN my inventory and NOT equipped >.>
     
    • Like Like x 1
  12. Jess
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    Jess Pac Pinky

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    Jess, osooso
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    That sucks ): Thanks for the heads up
     
  13. Lyn00
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    Lyn00 Capt. Latanica

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    You can do it izusu !! Its perseverance
     
  14. United
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    United Skelegon

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    I burned all my luck on my faltizan... cant scroll anything since T___T
     
  15. Lyn00
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    Lyn00 Capt. Latanica

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    same :c
     
  16. Yozich
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    Yozich Wolfspider

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    Biggest lie in the universe ^ :^)
     
  17. United
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    United Skelegon

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    Please just stfu
     
  18. Lionheart
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    Lionheart Horntail

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    That feeling when you get one of the few maple weapons on the server, and 2/7 60% scrolls work.

    OnionMad

    [​IMG]
     
  19. James M
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    James M Mixed Golem

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    A game of chance. But isn't maplestory scrolling coded so that it's like a number generator or am I wrong?
     
  20. Chew
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    Chew Headless Horseman

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    Your are correct. It's coded, which means it's effectively not a game of chance since the outcome is know, at least to the machine.
     

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