Shivering's Meso Journal (inspired by Moomins)

Unlucky on those MW20 packages.

 

Have the recent changes to macros changed the eph at ulu 2/3 for bishop with genesis?

 

It shouldn't because Ulu 2/3 mobs are usually 1 or 2-hit Genesis and you constantly move left-and-right to cast your ulti.
Which means, you don't need to macro it.

The macro change only tackles multi-clienting (ie. ALT-Tabbing into your second mage client to cast ulti). With multi-clienting, using macro saves time and promotes efficiency as your first mage that has been ALT-Tabbed out will still be casting spells due to the macro, while you're ALT-Tabbed into your second mage.

Single-client mage leeching should not be affected by macro change.

 

LOL

 

:respect:

 

Nice 1/1 on first slot.
13 ws per service?
so 26-16 = 10 ws profit ?
Poggers

 

who the hell white scrolls a fairfrozen

 

this thread is crazy

 

I think the concept of WS service is actually pretty interesting. It's essentially a variation of the St. Petersburg paradox, where the seller has a positive gain under expected value each time they sell, yet looking at expected value alone can give a very incomplete picture.

For example, suppose someone starts with an initial stock of 50 WS and sells white scroll service an arbitrarily large number of times at a rate of 13 WS per slot. If they "go bankrupt" at any point (WS stock reaches 0) then they just stop. A quick simulation of this experiment reveals that the probability that they "go bankrupt" in the long run is only around 5%. That's really good, considering the enormous profit margin!

Now suppose someone else is less wealthy to begin with and has only 20 WS; moreover, this person sells at a measly rate of 11 WS per slot, which is still a "profitable" rate under expected value. But the probability that this person will "go bankrupt" is over 50% - they are actually more likely to go bankrupt in the long run than to profit - even though the long run "expected value" of their white scroll stock is infinity.

So in short, anyone considering selling WS service should heavily take into not just the rate they sell at, but how wealthy they are to begin with. If the person in the above example selling at a rate of 11 WS per slot had an initial stock of 200 WS rather than 20 WS, then their probability of going bankrupt falls from over 50% to just 1-2%, and they can be pretty confident that they'll see big profits. Tl;dr, the rich get richer

 

Dayum then what about those other pre-bb servers with a pop of 40-ish players online? XD

 

At least you didn't use 44 straight

 

Calling it a variation of the St. Petersburg Paradox is a really convoluted way to say “insurance” lol. And what you’ve illustrated actually isn’t much like the St. Petersburg Paradox—which depicts a game in which the expected value is infinite but nobody wants to participate, mainly due to preferences for risk aversion—because you’ve just shown the expected value to be high and we’ve seen people willing to participate in selling the service.

WS service is just insurance: a contract people buy because they want to pay some amount to reduce the discomfort of risk. Like all insurance, selling WS service has risk involved too, and the burden of that risk decreases as the insurer’s wealth increases.

Personally I’m much more interested in seeing Shivering become ML’s first reinsurer

 

Preferences for risk aversion implies that even if the expected value of money is high, people have preferences for the expected value of some function of money, which may not be high. This is not really related to the main point of what I posted, which is that as long as the rate is in your favor, expected value becomes arbitrarily high as you sell more service, but high "expected value" does not mean you should literally "expect" to make money. (You can have E[X_t] go to infinity but Pr(X_t >0 ) go to 0, if you're too poor to start with and the rates aren't high enough.) It is a statement about the amount of money you have and is completely independent of being risk-averse/risk-neutral/risk-loving.

The numerical simulations make concrete that Shivering is probably in a good place selling at a 12:1 rate (even 11:1 starts getting dicey, the difference is actually pretty big unless you're insanely rich), with the one exception being if he can't find enough buyers, as he pointed out.

 

Yeah I don't disagree with that or your calculations lol I was just saying that that's not really what the St. Petersburg Paradox is given that there people are willing to sell WS service. The mention of risk aversion was just to explain why it is a paradox, as low expected utility from risk-averse preferences is the main explanation for why the paradox exists. I'm not claiming that preferences play a role in calculating the expected value; I'm only claiming that they play a role in the human decision-making, by looking at preferences over the probability distribution of returns (i.e. expected utility theory).

 

hello, i have little time playing in legends. just when my mage was training I ran into some people farming there. I found it surprising how they control 4 wizards simultaneously and collect with the MU mule. The person who was farming very kindly told me you were the creator of the guide. that there was a video. I do not know if in the future they will nerf the map but to do that it must require skill, which deserves to be rewarded....
I would like to know if you really made a video and if so, could I see it? I thank you in advance for creating this type of content, the truth is that I am not very familiar with leech, since this depends on someone paying you and if you do not find a buyer, you waste your time. that's why I like mages.!