S> Selling: 11ATT WG (SOLD)

100m tho

 

Not bad normal wg 11 atk.

 

40 m

 

45

 

Can someone explain this logic to me please?

Glove att 60% - 2m at most
Glove att 30% - 5m at most.

you can buy 6 30%'s and 10 60%'s for the same price as the c/o

http://i241.***/albums/ff198/TridentRoche/1441672054084.jpg

 

Gotta hit them aswell.

 

People have already passed 4 30%'s on items on this server. Yet someones paying out the ass for 1 30% and 4 60%s? thats a fuckin laugh. All I'm sayin.

 

.......
for 11 att you need 30% + 4 in a raw 60%................
not that easy, and ppl have very bad experiance with scrolling this shytys

 

Why don't you try making an 11atk wg with 45m and see how it turns out?

Spoiler

usually, not well

Just to put it into perspective, the chance of landing 1 30 and 4 70s on a glove is 7%. And that's using 70s, not 60s. Obviously that doesn't mean the cost of 11atk wg is (5+2*4)/.07, but it's harder than you think

 

thats your problem. stop using 60s.

 

Together these both have costed me 10m. woulda been way less if I spent an hour at chronoses.

Get me a 30% and I'll do these live.
http://i241.***/albums/ff198/TridentRoche/scaler.jpg

2 more and I'll do these for shits n giggles.

http://i241.***/albums/ff198/TridentRoche/focus.jpg

 

You got lucky. you can't expect to hit 5/5 60s. I'll take that bet any day.

 

yea now try 30% at start... meaning only 1\3 willsuccsess... and you got yourself though life

 

All right all you non-believers, here is my valuation of an 11atk wg.

Consider the strategy of getting a 3atk4slot glove, and 70'ing it until finish or boom.

1. Probabilities
With a 3atk4slot wg, if you use 70s until it booms or finishes, you have .85^4 =52% chance of finishing it, and thus 48% chance of booming.

Given that it completes without booming, your distribution is

• 11atk = (4 choose 0) * (.7/.85)^4 * (.15/.85)^0 = 46%
• 9atk = (4 choose 1) * (.7/.85)^3 * (.15/.85)^1 = 39%
• 7atk = (4 choose 2) * (.7/.85)^2 * (.15/.85)^2 = 13%
  
• 5atk = (4 choose 3) * (.7/.85)^1 * (.15/.85)^3 = 2%
  
• 3atk = (4 choose 4) * (.7/.85)^0 * (.15/.85)^4 =~ 0%

Since you only have 52% chance of completion, your outcome distribution is

• 11atk = .46*.52 = 24%
• 9atk = .39*.52 = 20%
• 7atk = .13*.52 = 7%
  
• 5atk = .02*.52 = 1%
  
• 3atk = 0%
  
• boom = 48%

2. Cost
Start with a 3atk4slot glove. The break-even price of such a glove is (.6+.5)/10% = 11m. 0.6 is the cost of a clean work glove, and .5 is the cost of a 10% scroll.

Since our strategy is to use 70s until it finishes or booms, we will use an average of (.15)*1+(.85*.15)*2+(.85^2*.15)*3+(.85^3)*4 =3.2 scrolls.

so average cost of this strategy per "attempt" is 11+3.2*2=17.4m, where 2 is the cost of gfa70.

3. Valuation
Market prices are (10atk=30m, 9atk=20m, 8atk=10m, 7atk=7m, 5atk=1m?...anything below = 0).

sum of your outcomes need to be 17.4m to break even, so...

17.4 = .24x + .20(20)+.07(7) + .01(1), where x = breakeven price of 11atk wg.

Solve for x, x=>53.75m.

Surprise!

4. Intangibles
Usually scrollers take a margin on top of the break-even price, in compensation for the risk they assume in scrolling. Therefore you may even be able to justify a price even above the break-even price.

However, work gloves are over scrolled and margins are VERY thin because everyone scrolls them, so around 53.75m is probably a fair price, given that my other glove prices are correct

 

POWER OF MATH

 

http://i241.***/albums/ff198/TridentRoche/l2fdwg1.jpg