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C++'s Scroll Price Guide (AVG,STDDEV,MIN,MAX)

Discussion in 'Items & Mesos' started by C++, Jul 31, 2017.

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  1. deribou
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    deribou Skelegon

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    Maybe if you could recruit someone to help check the other channels as well, especially channel 2.
    The more data you have, the more accurate the guide will be.

    Aside from that, the issue with the unpurchased items is pretty hard to pin down.
    An easy but not necessarily "good" fix would be to just lower the prices you find on everything by an X%.
    For example, if you find most of one scroll (Let's say spear 30%) is priced around 1.5 million, it could mean that most of the spear 30s purchased are below that price, meaning the actual price might be somewhere between 1 million and 1.5 million instead of being 1 million.
     
  2. OP
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    C++ Mushmom

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    I suspect it will be difficult to find players who are willing to dedicate multiple hours of their day, everyday, to contributing data with no reward.
    Nonetheless, I'll start taking PMs for anyone who wants to contribute.

    The STDDEV sort of aims to cover both the lower range and higher range of a scroll's price and is mathematically supported by hard data.
    Implementing a "reduce-by-X%" solution can introduce human error, and one would need to know by how much % to lower each specific scroll, which requires a substantial amount of knowledge.
    I'll run some analyses on the STDDEV of MIN to see if I can implement something similar to "reduce-by-X%" that is backed by hard data.
     
  3. OP
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    C++ Mushmom

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    "
    • I do not record prices that deviate significantly from the average.
    "

    Edit: I will purge the old data given the monopolization. Thank you.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2017
  4. Zeretius
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    Zeretius Windraider

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    to your original post before the edit, i've seen tons of bow 30s sold for 4.5m-5m. Even then that owl displays the prices no where near 3.6m, its been like that for the passed week.

    Edit: literally just seen one [​IMG]
     
  5. OP
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    C++ Mushmom

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    This is just going to be a case of "he said she said," but I saw two yesterday for 3.2 & 3.6m.

    I'll make a change to the bullet point under IMPORTANT to address this.
     
  6. Zeretius
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    Zeretius Windraider

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    Yea, you right. Please by all means keep it at 3.6m. I don't mind.
     
  7. OP
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    C++ Mushmom

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    Updated
     
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  8. Hyoon
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    Hyoon Zakum Retired Staff

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    You should only put prices of those with a certain amount of references.

    Your white scroll reference is legit one scroll priced 10m above what people would pay for.

    Because of this it'll keep going up, as most people use this general guide as a base reference.
     
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  9. OP
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    C++ Mushmom

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    What do you suggest the required # of references be?
     
  10. Eggplant
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    Eggplant Horny Mushroom

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    Or just note the sample size in another column? Then you can tell for yourself how made up the price is if you know beforehand there's only 1 listing.
    Otherwise, you'll have 'white scroll: no idea' because there is only 1 reference? I think its 1 ref still deserves to be put up there.

    good job c++ my dude
     
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  11. Zeretius
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    Zeretius Windraider

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    just close the guide. thanks.
     
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  12. xNivx
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    xNivx Headless Horseman

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    do us all a favor and quit already you toxic thanks
     
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  13. Franco
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    Franco Wolfspider

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    OnionWhatever you are the biggest idiot I've ever seen, go buy some shampoo bro OnionPanic
     
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  14. Hyoon
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    Hyoon Zakum Retired Staff

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    I would only say white scrolls and chaos fit into this category since they are highly wanted by top players.

    Standard prices are almost instantly bought, and the ones left over are the ones that are considered over priced. I would say if there are atleast 10+ of the single item then it would be a valid pricing range.

    Ex. I buy out all the white scrolls for 80m and price only one for 300m. That doesnt mean white scrolls are now 300m, but would still be recorded as a value here and mess up the market for players as new players generally blindly follow this.
     
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  15. Hiromi
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    Hiromi Snail

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    Information asymmetry is a part of any game without a real-time marketplace; unless you are going to add an alls-owl NPC for exclusively for scrolls which gives minimum, average, standard deviation, median and max price points for scrolls in FM. Outdated data, data of sold sources from limited locations, limited time periods, etc.

    It wouldn't mess up the market for players at all; even if it did, it would be temporary. A price of 300m signals to people to gacha more often, rather than use their NX for other things. It might also signal them to vote more often if they didn't before because of the increase in expected awards. Regardless, if you put 300m scroll in your shop, and the playerbase does not have the monetary base to buy it due to reduced mesos in circulation, then you just wasted a shop slot in your shop for no reason. A de facto monopoly of an item means it doesn't matter what other people say in regards to its price. (1) you need enough capital to maintain said monopoly, but since the rate of scrolls allows for at least one scroll to be introduced everyday, I find it hard to believe you can get 160m mesos or more everyday consistently - since you also raise the 'expected' price by causing such a short-time aggregate decrease in supply; but in (2) the long run, nothing changes. You put mesos back in circulation, and people will buy out those undercutters by 10m, 50m, 100m as these guys get impatient for following the 'guide'.

    The economy at any given point in time has a fixed rate of mesos circulating amongst players, adjusted for a given amount of items that can be purchased. Decreasing the amount of items, decreases the worth of the mesos; and likewise, vice versa. The proportion of mesos entering and exiting the server remains to be relatively varied in a short-temporal time period, but remains relatively flat with slight cyclical periods due to seasonal periodicity in behavior of its user demographics like Christmas, or whatever. Same with weekend vs weekday interday-log ins. The point being made is that the number of items appearing, number of items disappearing, number of mesos being made available to use remain for all intent and purposes, constant, and variable with only respect to absolute quantities, but not in relative proportions to the increasing user base - making it a moot point that prices going up or down is a bad thing in itself due to natural variability in user spending behavior, like someone with 1 bil gorging 100m 10x on one random day and causing a spike in price.

    The second side note being is that, at any particular price point, there are X buyers and Y sellers.

    If there is a change in quantity supplied, then the market price will change too. There is no actual change in demand, and there is no actual change in supply.
    There will always be more desperate people who are in the top 1% of wealth, waiting to spend their mesos on whatever is in artificial shortage, if they find it valuable enough.

    At X price, there is a 90% chance of the item being sold.
    At X price + D interval, there is a 75% chance of the item being sold.
    At X price + 2D interval, there is a 30% chance of the item being sold.

    All items have varying elasticities with regards to the price differential increases in yielding a corresponding proportionate decrease in (a) able buyers and (b) available buyers and (c) wanted buyers.

    The elasticity function is non-linear for most items that are not commodities/staples like ores/potions, since there are multiple trade-offs and opportunity costs at certain price points that make other options more lucrative or attractive; buying X MA wand or X cape and Y glove. Furthermore, following the pareto power law, an inverse relationship can be found with regards to the highest-valued items due to their resellability.

    Not everyone has the mesos, not everyone is online, and not everyone values the item at X + ND interval price.
    The item is not 'overpriced' for some N% of the market. I can value 'sticky slime liquids' for 10,000 mesos a pop for 25 right now if I was a newb who wanted an Amorian hairstyle coupon ASAP for example, in the same vain that I pay $4.50 for a water bottle at an amusement park because there is no where else to quench my thirst. Therefore, it is inaccurate to make a claim that such prices are 'overpriced' - but rather priced at a percentage for which most people are unable to pay for, or not wanting to pay for.

    Volatility in perception of price might cause biases to induce people to pay more, but in my view, it is an impossibility to make people pay $10 for a water bottle just because your friends do it too - unless you live in Alaska or you are visiting an upper trendy restaurant where circumstances like artificial shortage, social prestige and other factors come into play to make people to justify their 200% increase in white scroll purchases, even if this guide says so. The stock market follows the same herd behavior in the short run but propogates a similar line of reasoning in terms of price valuation behavior. If the company produces value consistently over a long period of time, it goes up with all things being equal even if the X, Y, Z entities keep claiming the company is worth '$0' in the same way this guide tries to make certain claims about the prices of items without having real-time data.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2017
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  16. OP
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    C++ Mushmom

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    We all have different ways to view the "price" of an item.

    If you consider the case of a buyer asking himself "if I enter CH1 FM today and want to buy a white scroll from a shop, how much should I expect to pay for one?" then this guide will provide accurate information.

    This player might not want to wait for a server-wide announcement of someone receiving a white scroll from gachapon, or might not wish to spend the NX to smega that he wishes to purchase a white scroll.

    This guide aims to assist in FM purchases/sales, not necessarily player-to-player sales. Some scrolls sold between player-to-player closely resemble the prices in this guide, while some do not.

    I figure it is better for a new player to overprice a scroll and negotiate down to "standard" price than to get majorly ripped off by selling their scroll for too little.

    In any case, I will consider removing white scrolls/chaos scrolls from the guide. Just give me some time to consider all angles.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2017
  17. xNivx
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    Don't remove it please because even I rely on that when sometimes I get ws/chaos which is like once every 3 months and I don't visit fm stores very often.
    It's honestly not your fault that people sell stuff basing the prices on your guide, you just throw it the prices that you see out there the community decides the market price

    If you give up to the toxic part of the community (which is sad, a semi "rich" guild crying over 1m/2m more because people rely on your guide and following the community market price that you see in FM), those who wanna buy/sell scrolls and doesn't know for how much it usually goes will be disappointed
     
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  18. Taida
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    Taida Mixed Golem

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    pls fix my ocd fren

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. OP
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    C++ Mushmom

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    Done. Sorry about that, I tend not to look at the Google Doc very often.
     
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  20. xNivx
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    sorry? delete the guide
     
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