My glove journal (Inspired by Akash)

Statistics for specific scrolling, like CS or WS, are meaningless and are more of fun factors, as they all still call the same random function at the end of the code, like everything else in the game. This includes scrolling, item drops, skillbook usage, gachapons, cosmetics coupons, mob behaviors—basically everything with random chance.

The game doesn't know what value is considered lucky or unlucky. If there's another parallel world and you use a 30% scroll for Claw Attack in one world and Axe Attack in another, at the exact same moment (assuming there’s no manipulation with hidden conditions to alter the chance), they are going to give you the same passing or failing roll. The value comes from human perception of the outcome, which in this case mostly revolves around the balance of the game.

If you spread out a million rolls of 100, they are very likely to distribute close to evenly. However, those rolls of the same value are not perceived the same and solely depend on what rolled them. Assuming a 30% scroll passes if a roll is <= 30, out of those million rolls, the expected amount that rolled 30 or below is 300k. But not all 300k rolls were for scrolls. The more other random things were done outside of scrolling, the more those <= 30 rolls were rolled for other things.

 

All scrolls are 50% in the end. Either they pass or don't

 

I didnt try to define luck. I was explaning how variance works since you seem to have unrealistic expectations. Just because you spend alot of time doesnt mean a scroll % increase. A 6% attempt doesnt care if it takes you 1week multimaging or 1year farming snails in henesys.

You talk about favorable outcomes in a reasonable time. Looking at your sample size and the % off the scrolls you are barely under avrg. If you gave 10ppl the same amount of scrolls there would be like 4/10 with the same outcome as you. Yet you talk like you are bottom 1% on the server.

Also the higher sample size you have the closer you'll get to the expected outcome, its not a magic line you cross at 1000+ or something. Ive played for 4~ years now and most people who have made godtier endgame items on this server probobly have used 5-10x the amount scrolls you have. There's at most 9-10 people on the entire server who has got spoonfeed in a "favorable and reasonable amount of time" as you say it. And yes they are lucky bastards and we all envy them, but not getting spoonfeed doesnt equal bad luck.

So simply said you are not unlucky, not even close by any definition. You are closer to average. So complaining about being unlucky is comparable to when hot girls say they are ugly on instagram.

 

I do apologize coming off kinda brute. I am definitely desensitized from working with experiences like this daily~ and I dont feel like your case was that bad. I assumed you were a bit clueless... so It surprises me quite a bit that you seem to be aware of the potential outcome from scrolling, but yet got so emotional about it at this early stage. Id assume the tunnel vision for the +5 got you, because just looking at your overall chaoses it looks good (you got everything except for a +5 pretty much). The ws combined sure it sucks but again def nothing crazy looking at it from a vacuum.


But I can tell you that feeling unlucky is actually the norm with the vast majority of people. Once again humans are extremely biased and bad at remembering good times compared to bad times, I dare you to walk into a casino and talk to a random stranger, and ask if they think they are unlucky or not (You'll get a 30min+ rant on how life is very unfair with 99% succesrate). Or go read any casino sites trustpilot reviews and literally every comment will be 1star and about how it is rigged.

Also reading forums/discord and comparing yourself to others is just pure brain rot. You are comparing yourself to the top 5%. People always just share the good stuff. Just look at how social media work and its impact on mental health globally.

The RNG on these big meso items makes it very high risk, high reward. Im still unsure if Mr /S was trolling last page but even my own journal I started is a bit sugarcoated. I did not scroll a single good item for about 3years, I've done 2 big ragebenders booming so many chaos/capes I lost count. Then I finally made a cape and became about breakeven in total. And then now I went 18chaos on gloves without a single one giving me + stats (thats like failing 18 30%s in a row). Thats just how things work with these low % scrolls. It would be fun and eyeopening if someone out there who has 500+ scrolls used could share their ups and downs with us.

But what you gotta ask yourself is how you will move forward.

Are you okay with another 1-2 years not getting a single upgrade chasing this +5? Even so, when you eventually get the +5 you gotta WS it aswell.

If not you gotta either find a way to accumulate mesos faster. Or lower your expectations and maybe go for a lower att glove instead.

The unga bunga option is to just keep going for +5 at the same pace and pray you get lucky, but that also makes it a possibility you end up completely empty handed at the expense of your sanity.

Cant have it all. But at least make sure you have fun and enjoy the journey. In my opinion an extra 2att on your glove is not worth the extra time spent. I even regret going for 8/5 myself.