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Has the hoarding issue been resolved?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by -ovv, Jan 19, 2022.

Is hoarding still a problem?

  1. Yes

    66 vote(s)
    61.7%
  2. No

    41 vote(s)
    38.3%
  1. akashsky
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    akashsky Horntail

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    When you do the math for 10% scrolls the advantage does not look as severe, but as the scroll pass rate increases with 30% scrolls or chaos 60% scrolls, the pure CSS advantage becomes larger.

    It would also destroy the balance on chaosing attack gloves. A failed chaos does not matter, all that matters is that you get any passes with +3, +4 or +5. Just pure css the lost slots then WS 10% the rest.

    That being said these scrolls may be making their way to maplelegends at some point regardless because they do show up as a searchable item on owls of minerva.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  2. OP
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    -ovv
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    -ovv Horntail

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    Except both dark scrolls and chaos scrolls have their worst-case mechanics built in by either blowing up the item entirely or by offering an equal chance at giving negative stats (and made irreversible through Pure CSS).

    I do think Pure CSS would be quite expensive - not only through its utility value but also in its availability. I doubt there would be hundreds available in the market at any given time.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. akashsky
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    akashsky Horntail

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    The alternative is using dark / chaos scrolls with white scrolls to prevent wasted slots, which will certainly be more cost prohibitive than using these scrolls raw and then pure CSSing if needed.

    Of course Pure CSS could be balanced based on cost, but if its cost is balanced to the maximum utility it can provide (it reaches maximum utility in the chaos gloves scenario), it is going to be out of reach for most people.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  4. OP
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    -ovv
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    -ovv Horntail

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    I'm still confused by this. What benefit would Pure CSS offer for chaos gloves? If you ever get to the point where it would make economic sense to White Scroll + CS in order to preserve a slot, WS+CS should still be the favorable method over raw CS as long as Pure CSS 10% isn't less than 1/10th the cost of a White Scroll (10 pog coins + 1 mil, or ~22-23m in today's market). Considering a regular CSS 20% is something like 10m already, I highly doubt Pure CSS 10% would go for anything close to 22m.
     
  5. akashsky
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    akashsky Horntail

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    You are not considering that 60% of the time, the chaos scroll will pass and no pure css 10% will need to be used. Whereas if you WS + CS, the white scroll gets used 100% of the time.
     
  6. Cashew2
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    Cashew2 Orange Mushroom

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    You guys beat me to it.

    CS + Pure CSS beats out CS + WS when the CS passes 1st try since the cost is 0 vs 1 WS (60% of the time)

    Past that 1 WS = 10 Pure CSS and the benefit from that first scenario would probably be factored into the pricing of Pure CSS

    So if the 2nd CS passed, you would have either spent 2 WS or 10 Pure CSS (1:5)

    3rd CS passed, 3 WS or 20 Pure CSS (1:7ish)

    etc.
     
  7. mard
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    mard Mixed Golem Retired Staff

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    Seems like this thread is getting a bit derailed, but while I don't think hoarding itself is resolved (people will probably continue to hoard no matter what the staff try to do), it is pretty nice to be able to make some resemblance of progress towards WS/CS. However, I will say that it still seems like it takes a considerable amount of time to accumulate coins.

    Side note: has anyone logged how often pouches seem to drop from the different bosses? I know coin drops from the different bosses have been listed as either rare, uncommon, or common, but I'm curious if anyone has empirically determined/guessed what that exactly means in terms of the drop rate.
     
  8. OP
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    -ovv Horntail

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    Let me break it down to try and understand it myself.

    In the case of chaos scrolling gloves:
    16.36%. of the time it will yield a favorable and irreversible result of +3, +4, +5.
    43.63% of the time it will yield an unfavorable and irreversible result of [-5,+2].
    40% of the time it will yield a reversible result of a failed scroll.

    For a larger project like advancing an 8/5 glove, wouldn't white scrolling + chaos scrolling protect you on the 40% chance of failure? Sure, there is a 43.63% chance you will yield an irreversible result of [-5,+2] and that would stop your project there, but 40% of the time you will have failed the slot and would be paying way more than 1 white scroll to get that slot back. If you land a favorable result, your white scroll + chaos scroll would have been well worth the investment anyways.

    I guess the broken factor comes in that 16.36% favorable outcome being way more cost effective than trying to WS + 10% your glove, but you aren't going to be WS+10 a 3/6, 6/5, or 9/4 glove either.

    Am I missing something in my logic?

    Also, this is assuming Pure CSS 10% is way more than the cost of 1/10th of a white scroll. In your previous posts, you valued Pure CSS being several times more expensive than white scrolls.
     
  9. OP
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    -ovv Horntail

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    Here's another update on the coin market using a few owls. All costs are using cheapest price available in market.
    upload_2022-1-27_9-44-0.png

    It seems like individual coins are still cheaper to buy than the pouches for some reason, and the available count of pouches on the market are scarce.
    It seems like the market is currently being completely hoarded by BOOMERHB.

    upload_2022-1-27_9-45-32.png
    upload_2022-1-27_9-45-51.png
    upload_2022-1-27_9-46-7.png
    upload_2022-1-27_9-46-24.png
    upload_2022-1-27_9-46-43.png

    So you guys still think hoarding isn't an issue?
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  10. MrPresident
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    MrPresident Capt. Latanica

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    Hoarding is definitely an issue imo but the bigger issue is coins seem slow to farm. From what I've kept track of I have 12 jiao (6 pouches), 10 nameless (3 pouches), 4 verga (0), 4 dunas (2), 6 zak (0), 5 PB (1), 5 pap (0), 2 krex (0) and 1 HT (1). In total that's produced me roughly 25 coins as 1 player or 1/4 of a WS. It probably should've been close to double that if zak and PB wasn't scamming so hard but that's still like 15+ hours of bossing to produce 1/4 to 1/2 of a WS. I've mostly gone back to farming ulu2 because it seems better off to buy the coins rather than produce my own. Then compare my paltry ulu2 wages to quad+ mage farmers and it doesn't make much sense to produce coins.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Disagree Disagree x 1
  11. yurain
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    The coin enables the mid-late game players with a single boss-able character able to generate CS/WS (income) via bossing, which is immpossible before. It enables those players to actually some what progress by selling the coins to end game players whom most likely do X mage farming.

    Rhe coin's purpose is not to make bossing as profitable as X mage farming. It just makes bossing an alternative source of WS/CS since we don't have that many new players farming GS/CD for gacha nowadays.

    Add-on: Also the 10% lost of WS/CS is to screw the initiate hoarders. But this conversion penalty should be compensated by a 10% increase in CS/WS from gacha because there is no reason to tune down the gacha supply of WS/CS regardless the pouch drop.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  12. OP
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    -ovv
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    -ovv Horntail

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    I think this is a good response to those saying that the hoarding issue is resolved because you can just farm it yourself.
    For the most parts, I'm happy with the prestigious coin implementation because it makes bossing more viable as content, but in the grand scheme of things, I feel like white scrolls are even more scarce than before, and the entire market is being squeezed dry by only a few actors.

    This makes it much more dangerous, especially in a complex/confusing system with a lot of irrationality.

    We're in the midst of an event where the supply of white scrolls is at its highest. So where are they all going?
     
  13. akashsky
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    akashsky Horntail

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    Alot of people are finishing their gear with 10% + WS. I heard that a +57 dex bowman overall was recently scrolled.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  14. OP
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    -ovv Horntail

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    If that is the case, I must be checking the market at the wrong times after all the reasonably priced coins are bought out. Right now, coins are ranging from 2.15 - 3.5m ea, with the median price at 3.5m.

    Either the coins are never entering the market, or that person who scrolled the last few slots on the overall got really lucky, because if they needed ~4k coins for the last 4 slots, they had to have gotten it off-market somehow.
     
  15. Jaewonnie
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    Jaewonnie Capt. Latanica

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    I have close to 4k coins but I will be using them on my weap. Yeah hoarding is there but coins are also scarce cuz the insane amount of WS required for 10% scrolls and 7 slot items. Just have a few ppl looking to WS their weap and the coin supply prolly gets decimated.
     
  16. OP
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    -ovv Horntail

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    Didn't you convert most of those 4k coins yourself? If so, you weren't really entering in the market to purchase them.

    This brings it all back to my main point - why the 10% reduction from the conversion of white scrolls to pouches? All it does is throttle the supply of white scrolls that enter the market when it does.

    Here are the various situations:
    • A person who gets a white scroll and needs it will use it themselves. No loss there. This is the optimal value conversion.
    • A person who gets a white scroll and needs it on a different account (timeless weapons, chaos scroll) will need to pay not only a 10m fee but will need to enter the coin market to purchase an additional 10 coins on average. This is an unnatural situation that forces an individual who already has an item to enter a market for that same item. It increases actors in the buyers market while there is no real counter-balance in the sellers market. As a server, we're capped at a limited supply based on RNG.
    • A person who gets a white scroll and doesn't need it can sell it or hoard it. If they decide to sell it, they will convert it into a pouch which is an automatic 10% reduction of value of that original white scroll in the form of a coin and a 10 mil meso sink.
    These situations all point to a bottleneck of any and all coins entering into the market, and it's getting taxed twice. Once from a user's perspective where they need to buy coins to top off the loss from conversion and a second time whenever a seller decides to sell.

    With bossing coins being implemented, I'm guessing staff theorized that a 10% sink from conversion would be enough to balance out the supply in case there was an overproduction. However, with rising costs of coins, this does not seem to be the case. The problem with white scroll hoarding itself has always been predicated by a shortage of supply. So why do we need to short the supply in any way?
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  17. TORONTOTOKYO
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    wasn't that via inheritance? LOL
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  18. Toon
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    Toon Capt. Latanica

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    Well, inheritance or not, ws is depleted from the market to craft any item, regardless of it’s origins. Also, i invite you to compare your gear to mine before my inheritance if that’s so important for the discussion.
     
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  19. Jaewonnie
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    Jaewonnie Capt. Latanica

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    Mostly yeah they were from pre-patch but i bought about 2b equivalent of pouches/coins after too. My point was more along the lines of: the amount of ws needed to finish a weap is just unbalanced compared to what the server can generate. I do agree with you the 10% reduction doesn't really do anything except drive the demand for more coins; definitely one of the sillier ways to punish hoarders if that was part of the intention at all. Even if the 10% sink was removed, I don't think it would make a noticeable dent to coin prices.
     
  20. OP
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    -ovv Horntail

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    Punishing hoarders by slashing the supply whilst not fixing the hoarding issue is probably the dumbest thing. Hoarders did not need to get punished. Hoarding was a by-product of a problem of growing demand and a stagnant supply. It was never the problem itself, and trying to punish people for hoarding did little to nothing for those who anticipated the telegraphed changes while indirectly catching the rest of the server in the crossfire.

    Those 6b worth of coins you initially had as white scrolls are the last of the supply of old stock. Our server will never see a mass conversion of white scrolls into coins like that ever again. We're in the midst of an event where white scrolls AND chaos scrolls are being generated through raffles, higher player activity, and an excited player base testing out a shiny new system, yet it seems like the supply hasn't gone up at all.

    Once numbers come out and the shine of a new system fades, I'm concerned people are going to default to their optimized mage strategies in hopes of outpacing the market by generating mesos. However, a market of buyers with pockets full of cash and no supply is going to get nasty.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1

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