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HTP vs MoN avoidability analysis

Discussion in 'Guides' started by Selquin, Dec 22, 2019.

  1. Selquin
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    Selquin Nightshadow

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    HTP and MoN are the two endgame pendants in the game. There is some debate about which one is better for which class. A 10atk mon seems to give a slightly bigger range boost (~roughyl 3 atk compared to a non-chaosed HTP, this varies depending on class/level/gear), but the extra luk and avoid stats from the HTP seems to give a differential of ~ 50 avoid. Recently someone seems to have cracked the formula for the dodge rate(https://forum.maplelegends.com/index.php?threads/maplelegends-avoidability-formula.26694/). Assuming this is accurate, we can now calculate the dodge rate difference that 50 avoid results in. Of course this is going to depend on the class and avoid rate, so I will be doing this calculation specifically for lategame archers, NLs, warriors, and Corsairs, and the context will be inside HT.

    The General Formula
    If your level is higher than the monsters level, the Dodge Rate against magical attacks (which is was is relevant in HT) is given by
    Dodge Rate= 10/9 - Monster Accuracy/(0.9*Avoid)

    HT has an accuracy of 250, so we can simplify this to

    Dodge Rate = 10/9 - (250/0.9)/(Avoid)

    This formula is of course non-linear, but we assume that the addition of 50 avoid is "small"( that is 50 / original avoid << 1) we can taylor expand up to the linear term about the original avoid and get an estimate for the "dodge rate % per unit avoid".

    Differentiation the Dodge Rate with respect to "Avoid"

    Avoid Rate per unit Avoid = (250/0.9) / (Avoid)^(2)

    Now we can apply this formula for Various classes.

    Archer
    Endgame archers will have around ~350 avoid fully buffed with a MoN.
    Avoid Rate per unit Avoid ~ (250/0.9) / (350)^(2) = ~0.23%

    This means that every point of avoid will add roughly ~0.23% chance of dodging an attack from Horntail. From this we can estimate that 50 avoid translates to roughly ~11% dodge rate.

    If you dont want to bother with the taylor expansions, we can just look at the difference between the avoid rates at 400 avoid(HTP) and 350 avoid(MoN)

    Dodge Rate(Avoid = 400) ~ 41.6%
    Dodge Rate(Avoid = 350) ~ 31.7%

    Roughly a 10% difference in dodge rate, which is close to the answer from our linearized analysis. This means that during HT an archer will dodge roughly 2-3 more attacks per min with an HTP. To any archer that has HTed before, it should be clear that this is much more significant than a mere 3atk.

    For a slightly more quantitative approach, we can estimate that HT will hit you roughly 25 times in 1 min. An extra 10% dodge rate amounts to about 2.5 extra dodges. Each dodge saves roughly 1second (taking into account time to get back into position and initial hurricane start up animation). This means you saves 2.5 seconds out of 60 seconds, increassing your dpm by ~4%. To evaluate the DPM increase of ~3atk, we have to make some assumptions the total attack of the character. For a reasonably well geared archer on HT buff or conc, this should be around ~200. This means that you get an extra 3/200 ~1.5% dpm increase from the 3atk. SHould be pretty clear that the avoid rate is superior in this situation.

    NLs
    Endgame NLs have around somewhere in the neighborhood ~700 avoid, but we also have to take into account shifter. Assuming that shifter modifies the Hit Rate by a factor of 0.7, the new hit rate formula is,

    Hit Rate(with Shifter) = 0.7(1- Dodge Rate(no shifter)) = 0.7(Monster Accuracy/(0.9*Avoid) - 1/9)
    Dodge Rate(with shifter) = 1-Hit Rate (with Shifter)
    =1 - 0.7(Monster Accuracy/(0.9*Avoid) - 1/9)

    Taking the derivative again,

    Dodge Rate per unit avoid = 0.7(Monster Accuracy/0.9)(1/Avoid)^2
    = 0.7(250/0.9) / (Avoid)^(2)

    Avoid Rate per unit Avoid ~ 0.7(250/0.9) / (700)^(2) = ~0.04%

    Clearly NLs benefit a lot less from the addition of avoid, this has to do with the non-linear nature of the formula that causes diminishing returns at high values of avoid.

    An HTP will give roughly 2% more avoid rate for an NL. I can't quite tell if this is worth the ~3atk loss from the MoN.

    Corsair/warriors
    To the best of my understanding corsairs have roughly 200 avoid at 18x using MoN. This is a weird one since if you plug these values into the formula you get a negative dodge rate. The same problem seems to arise with warriors as they have even less avoid. This seems to suggest you can never dodge an attack from HT. I don't know if this is right, perhaps there is some kind of lower cap on the magical avoid. However if this is true, then sairs and warriors should get no benefit from the extra avoid.
     
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  2. cakesogood
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    cakesogood Windraider

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    hey man nice math thread but very hard to understand so I think HTP pendant is better...
     
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  3. akashsky
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    akashsky Zakum

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    You gain no benefit from avoid in horntail as a corsair until you have at least 250.

    For example, I have about 250 clean with htp . Then with stoppers I have like 310. This gives me an avoid rate of like 20% , which immensely increases my dpm in ht main body.
     
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  4. OP
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    Selquin
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    Selquin Nightshadow

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    That makes much more sense, can you confirm that dodges are indeed impossible under 250 avoid?
     
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  5. akashsky
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    akashsky Zakum

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    I can try if I am able to log in today. But it certainly makes sense as to why I only ever recall being missed in horntail when on stoppers
     
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  6. Alyosha
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    Alyosha Headless Horseman Retired Staff

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    It's possible to miss with less avoid than the monsters accuracy. It doesn't happen much but it does happen. There must be some upper/lower bounds built in, but it would still mean that you wouldn't actually benefit from avoid until your avoid is greater than the monster's accuracy.

    Which basically makes avoid completely useless on warriors, sairs can probably just scoot by.

    The TL;DR of this entire post is:
    HTP good:
    Bowmen, Shadower, Buccaneers, Mages
    MoN good:
    Warriors, Night Lords

    For Sairs they can probably use a MoN unless they want to HT. If a bishop wants to HT they can switch to a MoN for HP.
     
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  7. cakesogood
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    cakesogood Windraider

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    why is it better for warriors .. htp gives dex

    so you can pump more stats into str giving you 46str and 23 dex on a pendant vs 10wa mon
     
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  8. OP
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    Selquin Nightshadow

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    This makes no sense. If the pendant gives you 23 dex and 23 str, you can save 23 AP you would have added into dex to hit some mid dex req and put it in str. That gives you a net total bonus of 46 AP points. A 10atk mon will also have some stat bonus, a max stat mon is 6str 6 dex. The HTP gives 17 extra dex and str, so in terms of AP it is superior by 34 points. Thus the comparison is between 34AP points (ie 34 points of str) vs 10 atk. Typically the ratio of atk:str is something like 1:5 in the endgame. 34 str is approximately equal to 7 atk, thus the MoN wins by ~3atk.
     
  9. Alyosha
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    [​IMG]
     
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  10. iPippy
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    iPippy Wolfspider

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    As far as I could tell, you normally shouldn't be able to dodge magic until you have the 250 avoid. That said, I could not make sense of the if statement on line 30. If I knew what those char values represented, or a condition that caused you to enter the GOTO statement, I could make a more reasonable guess. Even if the zswap isnt called, it looks like that only flips the meaning of the rng roll (bad roll becomes good roll), but not the final avoid rate. I can only guess that either the case where the GOTO executes causes it, or you had more buffs to put above 250, or the hit was actually a melee hit (which would have a min 2% dodge rate).
     
  11. Ever
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    Ever Dark Stone Golem

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    For NL equipping MoN or HTP, it's debatable which one is better because it will vary depending on circumstances.

    1.
    If the boss hit a lot like HT (especially body phase), then HTP avoid would fill the gap of 3 WA difference for sure.
    Not to mention that extra avoid saves you some pot costs as well.
    Otherwise, MoN would be the superior option overall since it boosts you another 300 hp for those who need.

    2.
    But we need to keep in mind that the higher WA pots you use, the gap between MoN and HTP gets negligible.
    If we gave an insight to LUK:WA ratio, it would be close to 5:1 for an end-game NL on heartstoppers after expiry of Red Christmas Sock & Strawberry Bar.
    If you use higher WA pots such as; Onyx Apple or Gelt Chocolate, then the ratio heavily favors to LUK over WA.
    In this case, we can say HTP can overcome MoN in terms of dpm wise because extra avoid would matter more than the sip of WA from MoN.

    3.
    To conclude, it's up to an individual to decide which pendant they would go for.
    In my honest opinion, I don't think chaosing MoN is a must for NLs since the difference is not even noticeable.
    However, you would need to spend a lot for chaosing one if we considered the fact the odd of chaosing never favors to the user.
    Again, not to mention that this is a comparison between "Chaosed" MoN Vs. "Unchaosed" HTP.

    I would say if you have more than 250 avoid on your ranged attacker, it is better to have a HTP over a MoN.
    You might think that you sacrifice a lot of range, but you don't.

    Thanks for your time commitment.
    I don't think this is a perfect calculation, but it feels really good that my assumptions were almost right.
     
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  12. NukeNukem
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    NukeNukem Snail

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    What gear do you have to get 250 avoid clean..?!
     
  13. akashsky
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    akashsky Zakum

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    Avoid shoes, overall scrolled with 30% luk. Also being high level helps since you get a small amount of avoid from dex.

    On another note, LF>revised analysis with the new TIMELESS pendant.
     
  14. Nise
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    Nise Supervisor Staff Member Supervisor Game Moderator

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    Let's take Skar's numbers and plug it into our NEW end game. Pink Bean. While HT has an accuracy of 250, PB has 270.

    General Formula
    If your level is higher than the monsters level, the Dodge Rate against magical attacks (which is was is relevant in HT) is given by: Dodge Rate= 10/9 - Monster Accuracy/(0.9*Avoid)

    Pink Bean Dodge Rate = 10/9 - (270/0.9)/(Avoid)

    Avoidability Formula
    • Avoidability formula (all classes not pirate) = 0.5 * LUK + 0.25 * DEX
    • Avoidability formula (corsair) = 0.5 * LUK + 0.125 * DEX
    • Avoidability formula (buccaneer) = 0.225 * STR + 0.25 * DEX

    Dodge Rate Calculations
    [​IMG]

    Comparative Calculations for DPM
    Upon reaching 80% of perfected gear... I've assumed HT attacks around 25 times per minute like Skar, but for Pink Bean I've estimated it more at 20 times since it's a single entity unlike HT (1 attack every 3 or so seconds as it should be).
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Simplified Table/Numbers:

    Corsair Setup (compared with perf. chaosed MoN) [​IMG]Dodge Rate IncreaseDPM Change
    How good is HTP [​IMG] fighting Pink Bean (apple)3.58% increase-0.58% DPM Decrease
    How good is PB Pendant [​IMG] fighting Pink Bean (apple)9.07% increase2.27% DPM Increase
    How good is PB Pendant [​IMG] fighting Horntail (apple)16.63% increase6.57% DPM Increase
    How good is PB Pendant [​IMG] fighting Horntail (cider)16.63% increase5.30% DPM Increase
    .
    Bowmaster Setup (compared with perf. chaosed MoN) [​IMG]Dodge Rate IncreaseDPM Change
    How good is HTP [​IMG] fighting Pink Bean (apple)10.72% increase1.95% DPM Increase
    How good is PB Pendant [​IMG] fighting Pink Bean (apple)13.38% increase3.72% DPM Increase
    How good is PB Pendant [​IMG] fighting Horntail (apple)12.40% increase4.49% DPM Increase
    How good is PB Pendant [​IMG] fighting Horntail (cider)12.40% increase3.37% DPM Increase
    .
    Marksman Setup (compared with perf. chaosed MoN) [​IMG]Dodge Rate IncreaseDPM Change
    How good is HTP [​IMG] fighting Pink Bean (apple)10.72% increase2.34% DPM Increase
    How good is PB Pendant [​IMG] fighting Pink Bean (apple)13.38% increase3.95% DPM Increase
    How good is PB Pendant [​IMG] fighting Horntail (apple)12.40% increase4.72% DPM Increase
    How good is PB Pendant [​IMG] fighting Horntail (cider)12.40% increase3.96% DPM Increase
    .
    Nightlord Setup (compared with perf. chaosed MoN) [​IMG]Dodge Rate IncreaseDPM Change
    How good is HTP [​IMG] fighting Pink Bean (apple)2.02% increase-1.34% DPM Decrease
    How good is PB Pendant [​IMG] fighting Pink Bean (apple)2.56% increase-0.15% DPM Decrease
    How good is PB Pendant [​IMG] fighting Horntail (apple)2.37% increase-0.01% DPM Decrease
    How good is PB Pendant [​IMG] fighting Horntail (cider)2.37% increase-1.41% DPM Decrease
    DO REMEMBER that there's a lot of assumptions with these numbers.
    • MoN is chaosed perfectly
    • Unchaosed HTP
    • PB Pendant levels up to absolutely max stats (+4 per level up for avoidability, luk, and dex)
    • PB Pendant is not chaosed
    • Gear perfection is at 80% (you can use copy the sheet below and fiddle with that however)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10jckOXPb4KL2_tBzhKR-oDzhW9dZxTIhOHhJSxZ0UI0/edit?usp=sharing
     
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  15. Nise
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    Nise Supervisor Staff Member Supervisor Game Moderator

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    Also, if I'm bothered I'll maybe put up a HTP vs PB Pendant analysis to see if it's worth upgrading :p
     
  16. AioriaX
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    AioriaX Selkie Jr.

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    Wow. While more avoid generally benefits all other classes in terms of DPM, this is significant for a nightlord: Screenshot 2020-11-18 at 11.48.51 AM.png
    Shows that HTP/PB pendant despite a 2+% higher dodge rate, overall DPM is still lower versus wearing a MON
    (ie. increase in dodge is not significant enough to improve DPM)

    Unless maybe one is finally sweaty enough to double chaos their HTP to +30 LUK & DEX, +50 avoid
     
  17. Nise
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    Nise Supervisor Staff Member Supervisor Game Moderator

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    Yea y'all have enough dodge that getting that small amount more dodge becomes insignificant in the grander scheme of things. Why double chaos HTP to +30 luk & dex +50 avoid when you can chaos the PB Pendant!

    PB Pendant if you max out on your level ups are 30 all-stat and +50 avoid already ;) time to just triple chaos that and get... 45 all-stat and 65 avoid ;)
     
  18. OP
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    Selquin
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    Selquin Nightshadow

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    Hard to say this early on, but my feeling is that avoid isn't actually as important for PB as it is for HT. During the statues stage the frequency of attacks is so low that dodge rate doesnt really play a role. PB phase is a bit more complicated, but I believe that the meta strat will be for sairs and archers to be placed on the left side of PB, while all other attackers are on the the right side. The people on the left side will not get hit very frequently since PB will mostly be facing right, and the people on the right side are mostly NLs, who don't benefit much from extra avoid stat due to diminishing returned.
     

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