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The Art of Scrolling: Beating the Odds

Discussion in 'Guides' started by kiwiz, Nov 18, 2022.

  1. kiwiz
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    kiwiz Skelegon

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    May 7, 2018
    9:01 AM
    INTRODUCTION.

    This guide is self-inspired by one of my own scrolling experiences: Your Latest Accomplishments!

    My motivation of scrolling in this guide is to profit in meso. And perhaps to open your mind into exploring other possibilities you've never thought of. To guarantee a profit, the production cost has to be less than the sales. Is that even possible? Isn't scrolling all about luck? MapleF1

    Recently I shared the results from my first profit scrolling experience: Your Latest Accomplishments!
    Which I'll display here as well.

    Fallen Leaf Earrings:
    3 completed TMA 21 Fallen Leaf earrings out of 22x MA 1 Fallen Leaf Earrings and INT 1 Red Emerald Earrings.
    tma_earrings.png
    earrings_production_cost_sales_table.png

    Elemental Wands:
    3 most notable Wands out of 35 attempted Wands. A few were TMA 163-165.
    tma_wands.png
    wands_production_cost_sales_table.png

    TMA Gloves:
    3 Completed Gloves from 12 mix of INT 1 Red Marker/Yellow Work Gloves, some INT 3 Dark Noel and INT 4 Dark Arten.
    tma_gloves.png
    gloves_production_cost_sales_table.png


    THE REVERSE SCROLLING METHOD.

    While I've shared my profit numbers, I did not share my method of scrolling.

    You may not have given any attention to my Cost-Sales table for not using any 10% scrolls at all. The reason is due to the scarcity of the items, unlike Single Earrings or Bathrobes which comes in unlimited supplies.

    Also, the amount of 30% scrolls used is lesser than the amount of items. It's because I used a method which I called the "reverse scrolling".

    The conventional method is to land the lower rate scrolls(10%, 30%) first and finish off with higher rate scrolls(60%, 70%, 100%). Mine would be the reverse, that is to scroll 60% and 70% first, then finish off with 30%.


    EXPECTED PRODUCTION COST (CONVENTIONAL VS REVERSE).

    Let me show you the calculation of the expected production cost on a 7,000 meso Single Earrings with Earring for INT scrolls:
    The top table shows the sequence of scrolling a 10%, followed by 4x 70%.
    As compared to the bottom table which shows 4x 70% first, followed by a 30%.
    4x70-1x30_scrolling_prod_cost.png
    (Note that the average price of the scrolls were during the time of scrolling and may not reflect the current ML's market.)


    Same results at +5 with a difference in production cost of about 25mil meso, the reverse method having the lower cost. Although this creates a weaker by-products from the failed ones, it certainly beats having to spend extra efforts getting rid of them if you're going to sell them.

    We also incur much lesser losses in the early stages of failures for the first 4 slots with reverse scrolling. We can prepare multiple +4 at a low cost and wait for cheaper 30% scrolls for the last slot.

    At the time of posting, I can sell a TMA 20 Single Earrings at 90-100mil meso while identical earrings are listing above 120mil meso in the market. This gives me a competitive edge in pricing and still yields an expected profit of 15-25mil meso for each completed +5 earrings.

    OMG?!! Wait... Does this means profit is guaranteed?!! Not exactly. Luck still plays a role, but the odds are in our favor! MapleF11

    Repeating over a large quantity will very likely regress towards these expected values, given you have enough meso to invest and the market has sufficient scrolls(and items in some cases) selling at reasonable price. So do your homework on the current market trend first!

    Also if you introduce too many similar items into the market, their values will certainly drop.

    This is only possible for certain items and scrolls due to the current state of ML's economy which can change overtime. By then you may also explore other items to be profitable by applying similar scrolling method. Just do the math.

    Again, keep in mind that my motivation is to profit and NOT to make godly items. It doesn't matter what the item is as long as it's profitable. This method WILL NOT help you create top tier items.

    If these are the stats you’d like to settle with then you can make them at lower cost than what the market is selling at. Or you simply just want make and keep it for yourself, spending lower meso than what the market offers.


    OTHER ADVANTAGES OF REVERSE SCROLLING.

    In this post The Art of Scrolling: Beating the Odds, I listed the advantages of reverse scrolling method over the conventional method other than the cost, which I've rewrote and added them to here as well.

    If we refer to the expected production cost from the above for 1x 10% -> 4x 70%, we are, on average, expected to spend 100mil meso to make a TMA 20 (+5) earrings plus some other by-products (notably the 5-6 INT ones) from the failed ones.
    1. Because scrolls has a limited supply at any one point, there's a good chance of us running out of 10% scrolls, leaving us with no completed earrings to sell.
    Passing 4x 70% in a row is about 24% (close to 1/4). This means on average, we're expected to create a (+5) 1 in about 40x 10% scrolls.

    2. Usually we'd want to collect a bunch of 10% scrolls before we start to scroll.
    Which means we would've spent over 80mil on 40x 10% scrolls leaving us with lesser meso freedom and potentially missing out on other opportunities if our meso is limited.

    3. The by-products are a pain in the ass to sell. They take up our shop slots for a long time and no one really likes buying incomplete earrings other than other scrollers who would only take them at a very low price.
    The 5-6 int ones are great but they don't come in big quantities to consistently make up for the 25mil expected cost difference.
    Now our meso are stuck with them as well because we can't trade them for anything at all, waiting forever in store for people to buy.

    4. Failing on slot 2-4 early puts us in bad meso situation because of how much we've already spent on 10% scrolls to reach this point and have nothing substantial to sell to recover the meso.

    Making +3 or +4 with 60% and 70% on the other hand are more economically friendly.
    1. We can always make 1 or 2 every few days at low expected production cost of about 5-8mil meso.
    The damage is minimal at early stages of failures, as compared to over 20mil for failing the 2nd slot after passing 1x 10%.

    2. You don't have to hold a bunch of expensive scrolls with you for a long time, like you might with 10% scrolls before you starting to scroll, leaving you with more meso freedom.
    Spending 80mil here on the other hand means you'd have about 9-10 (+4) earrings ready to 30%, which you actually have a rather good chance of making 1 or more completed earrings at this point.

    3. You spend 25mil lesser expected cost for a completed (+5) earrings as compared to the conventional method. You have the choice to dump all the weaker by-products or sell them (those tma12, 4 int 8ma ones) at extremely cheap price which newer players will appreciate.
    I'll take this 25mil any time over trying to sell a few 5-6 int earrings, if any at all.

    4. We are free to use 60% or 70% for the first few slots when either scroll are low in stock with small cost difference as compared to leaning more towards 70% for the last 4 slots after 1x 10% to maximize the chance, especially after we have spent so much.
    We can scroll the last slot any time when 30% scrolls drop in price or when a cheap-ass one pops out.


    RATE OF CONSECUTIVE SUCCESS + EXPECTED SCROLL USAGE.

    The 2 tables below show you the rate of consecutive passes and the expected scroll usage for 60% and 70% to give you some idea on roughly how many scrolls you need to prepare for passing the first 4 slots.

    60% scroll rate and expected usage:
    expected_scroll_use_60.png
    1 Slot: 60%, expect to use about 1-2 scrolls
    2 Slot: 36%, expect to use about 4-5 scrolls
    3 Slot: 21.6%, expect to use about 9 scrolls
    4 Slot: 12.96%, expect to use about 16-17 scrolls

    70% scroll rate and expected usage:
    expected_scroll_use_70.png
    1 Slot: 70%, expect to use about 1-2 scrolls
    2 Slot: 49%, expect to use about 3-4 scrolls
    3 Slot: 34.3%, expect to use about 6-7 scrolls
    4 Slot: 24.01%, expect to use about 10-11 scrolls

    I used a mixed 60% and 70% for my TMA 21 earrings so it’s closer to 17-20% to pass 4 slots.

    If you look back at my TMA Earrings’ Cost-Sales Table, I’ve used 7x 30% scrolls. That’s because 7 out of 22 earrings made it to +4, and 3 out of those 7 passed the 30%.

    My result actually exceeded the expectation of 5.28/22 and 2.1/7 so I got pretty lucky here. I would still profit even if I made 2x TMA 21 instead of 3x.

    1 MA Fallen Leaf Earrings and 1 INT Red Emerald Earrings cost an average of 1.5mil meso each. With that, here's the production cost comparison:
    The top table shows the sequence of scrolling a 10%, followed by 4x 70%.
    As compared to the bottom table which shows 4x 70% first, followed by a 30%.
    Now with a more production cost from the earrings of 1.5mil meso each.
    4x70-1x30_scrolling_item_prod_cost.png

    With the new cost of earrings, there's even a larger cost difference of about 67mil meso. My TMA 21 Earrings were sold at 120-125mil meso each. An increased in expected profit to 25-30mil meso as compared to TMA 20 Single Earrings' 15-25mil, while being praised as a very fair and reasonable price by many. MapleF3

    For some comparisons, TMA 24 earrings were sold/selling between 200-220mil at that point of time. TMA 22 earrings were listed above 150mil meso. No one was willing to sell at a lower price given how expensive it is to make them with conventional methods.


    CATCHING THE CONSECUTIVE SUCCESSES.

    How often does 2, 3 or 4 successes happen in a row? I actually don't know the exact math to it. But I do have some visuals to help me make decisions sometimes. These cells reroll every time there is a change in the sheet. I can press Delete on an empty cell and it will reroll.

    100 rolls of 60%:
    60_rolls.png
    It's fairly easy to pass 3 in a row if you try over a large amount. But there will be times where the second half of column 1 happens. And bad times when column 3 happens.

    100 rolls of 70%:
    70_rolls.png
    70% scrolls are better at passing 4 in a row. But you could also mix 2:2 with 60% and 70%.

    100 rolls of 30%:
    30_rolls.png
    This is the 1 that determines your true success. It's still better than having to go through 4 gruesome slots after passing the first slot with 10%/30%. MapleF8

    It's also pretty hard to catch 2 in a row, which you could try for more profits at a much higher risks.


    CREATE YOUR OWN FORTUNE - PROPOSED SCROLLING PATH.

    For the case of TMA Earrings, here are 2 scrolling paths I'd recommend you to go into:
    Pre-scrolling prep: create a bunch of +3 with 60% and 70% scrolls.
    Friendlier path (left): 70% -> 30% -> TMA 20 Earrings -> ~90-100mil
    Riskier path (right): 30% -> 30% -> TMA 25 Earrings -> ~210-240mil
    scrolling_paths.png
    The friendlier path has an expected production cost less than the sale (~75m, shown in the above table).

    The risker path has an expected production cost slightly more than the sale (~259m, shown in the below table).
    You might create some 17 TMA earrings which can probably sell around 30-40m to recover 2x 30% scrolls cost.
    If you hit 2x 30% earlier than expected into your scrolling, you can consider switching to friendlier path for the remaining earrings.

    Expected Production Cost for TMA 25 Single Earrings:
    The top table shows the sequence of scrolling a 10% and a 30%, followed by 3x 70%.
    As compared to the bottom table which shows 3x 70% first, followed by 2x 30%.
    3x70-2x30_scrolling_prod_cost.png
    Expected production cost difference of about 96mil meso. MapleF10 Look at how bad conventional scrolling is. Now you know why you're bad at scrolling.


    EXPLORE AND GET CREATIVE, ALSO, END.

    With the knowledge I've shared with you, feel free to further explore and get creative maybe. I've applied this method to Gloves, since they have 5 slots as well, and similar method to Wands, which I won't go into details. You can figure them out yourself. MapleF17

    Lastly, don't overlook 2/3 INT 4 slots earrings! Usually a clean 2 INT Red Emerald sells at 5mil meso. Someone might be selling a 2 INT 4 slots at 1mil meso or below. Grab them!

    If you have 5 of them, you actually have 10 total slots(2 each, from 4 slots to 2 slots) to try any 10% scrolls you have lying around on them. If any of it lands, it brings you to TMA 10-11 with 2-3 slots, which is better than a TMA 9 (+3) 2 slots Single Earrings. That's also where you will start your friendlier or riskier path.

    Here's 2 of them that were made from the many 4 slots earrings I've collected:
    4_slots_ree_start.png

    Here are some that were salvaged from the by-products that failed the 3rd slot:
    tma_gloves_earrings.png
    I had plenty of (+2) 4 INT, 6 MA, 2 Slots earrings that couldn't even sell for 500k.
    I decided to throw each of them a 10% scroll that I've collected overtime for less than 2m each and 3/12 passed! 2/3 made it on 30% scrolls. MapleF6

    Some other stuff I've made with similar method:
    TMA 172 Wand 6 but no purple text. MapleF18
    other_good_stuff.png

    Thank you for reading and all the best for your scrolling endeavors. MapleF13
    (don't blame me if you have really bad luck for your runs. MapleF3_Origin)


    NEW CREATIONS.

    I share my new creations and the costs into making them here. I’ll also update the sales prices once they are sold.

    Most of them I’d try to scroll into +4 as I acquired them and wait for the 30% scrolls in the market to scroll the last 1-2 slots.
    << 21 TMA Red Emerald Earring >>
    9x Earrings mix of Fallen Leaf and Red Emerald: 10m
    18x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 16m
    2x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 26m
    Production Cost: 52m, Expected Sale Price: 100-120m (Sold for 110m)
    [​IMG]
    Same strategy using the reverse scrolling method. Passed +4 with 70% scrolls and 30% the last.
    2 out of 9 attempts made it to +4. 1 out of the 2 passed 30%.

    << 170 TMA Wand 6 >>
    8x Wands mix of Wand 5-8: 12m
    11x Wand for MA 60% Scroll: 1.6m
    19x Wand for MA 70% Scroll: 6.6m
    5x Wand for MA 30% Scroll: 25m
    Production Cost: 45.2m, Expected Sale Price: 90-100m (Sold for 90m)
    [​IMG]
    Clean 142-144 TMA Wands are cheap, or at least buy them cheap.
    Each 1-2m, pass at least +4 on the first 5 slots, then you will have the last 2-3 slots to try your 30% with.
    Passed 2 and you will get 170-172 TMA wand.
    This is more risky as you will have to pass 2 slots but the prep to +4 is incredibly cheap.
    << 15 TMA Yellow Work Gloves & 22 TMA Dark Arten >>
    11x mix of Yellow Work Gloves and Mage Gloves: 20m
    27x Gloves for MA 70% Scroll: 76m
    6x Gloves for MA 30% Scroll: 70m
    3x Clean Slate Scroll 20%: 24m
    Production Cost: 190m, Expected Sale Price: 100-120m for Yellow Work Gloves (Sold for 110m)
    Some other by-product gloves sold for 44m
    [​IMG]
    I kept Arten for myself :> I estimate the price value to be 200-250m-ish, given I’ve sold my previous 20 TMA Red Marker that I’ve replaced with Arten for 360m.

    I failed the last slot the first time,
    CSS20 passed,
    GFMA30 failed,
    CSS20 failed,
    CSS20 passed,
    GFMA30 passed! MapleF8
    << 22 TMA Fallen Leaf & 22 TMA Red Emerald Earrings >>
    7x mix of 1-2 MA/INT Fallen Leaf & Red Emerald Earrings: 18m
    3x +2, 2 slots earrings from the previous scrolling session: 0m
    19x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 20m
    3x Earring for INT 10% Scroll: 7m
    3x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 43m
    Production Cost: 88m, Expected Sale Price: 120-140m per earrings
    (Red Emerald sold for 130m, kept Fallen Leaf for myself)
    [​IMG]
    I’m actually very lucky on this one.
    2 out of 7 made it to +4,
    1 of the 3 earrings from the previous session passed 10%,
    2 of the 3 passed 30%.
    << 22 TMA Fallen Leaf >>
    11x mix of 1-2 MA/INT Fallen Leaf & Red Emerald Earrings: 23m
    6x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 6m
    15x Earring for INT 10% Scroll: 15m
    1x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 19m
    Production Cost: 63m, Expected Sale Price: 120-140m (Sold for 140m)
    [​IMG]
    Purple always sells at good price MapleF14
    << 170 TMA Wand 6 >>
    6x Wands mix of Wand 6 & 8: 9m
    5x Wand for MA 60% Scroll: 1m
    13x Wand for MA 70% Scroll: 4.6m
    2x Wand for MA 10% Scroll: 1m
    5x Wand for MA 30% Scroll: 27m
    Production Cost: 42.6m, Expected Sale Price: 90-100m (Sold for 90m)
    [​IMG]
    << 171 TMA Wand 7 >>
    2x Wands mix of Wand 6 & 7: 3.4m
    6x Wand for MA 70% Scroll: 2.1m
    1x Wand for MA 10% Scroll: 500k
    3x Wand for MA 30% Scroll: 18.1m
    Production Cost: 24.1m, Expected Sale Price: 140-160m (Sold for 155m)
    [​IMG]
    First decent Wand 7 MapleF2
    Got this clean TMA 143 wand at 1.5m, turned into goodness.
    Passed +4 with 70%, scrolled the last 3 slots with 30%, 2 passed.

    Abandon if you didn't get +4 in the first 5 slots. You'd only spent 2-3m-ish.
    Clean TMA 142-144 are pretty cheap sometimes, like 1-2m. They can be made into TMA 170-172.

    You don't want to spend a bunch in the beginning to pass 2x30% only to get ruined by 60/70% and get less than TMA 170.
    << 22 TMA Red Emerald >>
    14x mix of 2 MA/INT Fallen Leaf & Red Emerald Earrings: 35m
    14x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 16m
    10x Earring for INT 60% Scroll: 8m
    4x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 72m
    Production Cost: 131m, Expected Sale Price: 120-140m (Sold for 130m)
    [​IMG]
    Not so lucky this time... MapleF8 also expensive 30% scrolls.
    << 24 TMA Red Emerald >>
    12x mix of 2 INT Red Emerald Earrings: 45m
    29x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 42m (70% expensive now)
    2x Earring for INT 60% Scroll: 1.4m
    4x Earring for INT 10% Scroll: 8.8m
    2x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 30m
    Production Cost: 127.2m, Expected Sale Price: 180-220m (Sold for 190m)
    plus a TMA 14 sold for 15m
    [​IMG]
    I used up all my meso from the previous sale to make dis.

    I also used my 30% scroll on the wrong earrings.
    Was suppose to use on a +4, 1 slot but I accidentally used it on a +3, 1 slot MapleF4
    Otherwise I'd have another 22 TMA Red Emerald Earrings MapleF3_Origin
    But then, it might not have passed on a different earrings.
    Not sure how much is this worth, perhaps 40-50m.
    [​IMG]
    Maybe I could try CSS20 this and potentially go for a 27 TMA MapleF13
    << 22 TMA Red Emerald >>
    4x mix of 1-2 INT Red Emerald Earrings: 11m
    5x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 7.7m
    2x Earring for INT 60% Scroll: 1.4m
    2x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 30m
    Production Cost: 50.1m, Expected Sale Price: 110-130m (Sold for 120m)
    [​IMG]
    Merry Christmas!
    << 22 TMA Red Emerald >>
    6x mix of 1-2 MA/INT Fallen Leaf & Red Emerald: 8.5m
    9x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 10m
    6x Earring for INT 60% Scroll: 3.6m
    1x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 15m
    Production Cost: 37.1m, Expected Sale Price: 110-130m (Sold for 120m)
    [​IMG]
    << 21 TMA Fallen Leaf >>
    5x 1 MA Fallen Leaf: 3m
    5x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 5m
    4x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 2m
    1x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 14.4m
    Production Cost: 28.4m, Expected Sale Price: 80-110m (Sold for 90m)
    [​IMG]
    Still works after 6 months! awesomemush I got lucky on first 30% scroll.
    << 21 TMA Red Emerald >>
    7x mix of 1-2 MA/INT Fallen Leaf & Red Emerald: 11.5m
    11x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 8.8m
    7x Earring for INT 60% Scroll: 4.5m
    1x Earring for INT 10% Scroll: 1.6m
    2x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 27.9m
    Production Cost: 54.3m, Expected Sale Price: 90-120m (Sold for 90m)
    [​IMG]
    The current market is pretty bare. Think I'm gona stop making for now. The scrolling method still works in our favor for the value of INT earrings. SlimeWink

    19 NOV 2022 - v1.0
    23 NOV 2022 - added "OTHER ADVANTAGES OF REVERSE SCROLLING." section
    28 NOV 2022 - added 2 new creations and their production costs - earrings & wand
    29 NOV 2022 - added 2 new creations and their production costs - gloves
    29 NOV 2022 - added 2 new creations and their production costs - earrings
    04 DEC 2022 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - fallen leaf earrings
    06 DEC 2022 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - wand 6
    07 DEC 2022 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - wand 7
    21 DEC 2022 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - red emerald earrings
    24 DEC 2022 - added 2 new creations and their production costs - red emerald earrings
    25 DEC 2022 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - red emerald earrings
    31 DEC 2022 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - red emerald earrings
    25 MAY 2023 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - fallen leaf earrings
    27 MAY 2023 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - red emerald earrings
    30 SEP 2023 - updated all images from Discord link to forum upload
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2023
    • Great Work Great Work x 19
    • Like Like x 4
    • Informative Informative x 2
  2. fael
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    fael Headless Horseman

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    Fael
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    Did you do any calcs to see how much you would get if you 10% first slot and 60/70 the rest? Cuz some 5 or 6 int earrings are also interesting, but the best you would get by your method would be 4 int.
     
  3. OP
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    kiwiz
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    kiwiz Skelegon

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    9:01 AM
    1x 10% + 4x 60/70% would result in 7int 13ma. My method is 4x 60/70% + 1x 30% which gives exactly the same result at a lower expected production cost(based on the cost at the time of my scrolling).

    There’s this table under EXPECTED PRODUCTION COST (CONVENTIONAL VS REVERSE).
    4x70-1x30_scrolling_prod_cost.png

    which shows you the expected production cost for both methods.

    If more int is what you are looking for then you can start with 1, 2 or 3 int REE but the expected production cost will exceed the sale once the item cost reaches about 5mil meso.

    Again, this guide is about profiting from scrolling, not making godly items. So there are limits.

    EDIT: using this post to upload my images due to the 20 images limit for the opening post :^)
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Sep 30, 2023
  4. Tommygunner
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    Tommygunner Slimy

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    why not start with 30% then 4 70%? are you saying the reason it's better to do 30% last is because 70% scrolls may destroy the earring?
     
  5. fael
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    fael Headless Horseman

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    I know, I'm just asking if you considered the mid term items you can make after 10%ing first slot, like 5 and 6 int earrings that are results from 1 or 2 60/70 failures.
     
  6. OP
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    kiwiz
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    kiwiz Skelegon

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    9:01 AM
    Using the same scroll prices as in my guide, my table tells me it's a bad idea.
    This means by the time you've have made a TMA 20 (+5), you are expected to have roughly spent 203mil meso, with a few failed by-products that definitely don't make up for the 100mil+ differences, for a completed product worth no more than 100mil perhaps. MapleF18

    1x30-4x70_scrolling_prod_cost.png

    As compared to the ones in guide:

    4x70-1x30_scrolling_prod_cost.png

    Hopefully this is clear why using 30% is not good, mainly due to the high prices of the scrolls.

    If we refer to the expected production cost above for 1x 10% -> 4x 70%, we are, on average, expected to spend 100mil meso to make a TMA 20 (+5) earrings plus all the other by-products from the failed ones.

    1. Because scrolls has a limited supply at any one point, there's a good chance of us running out of 10% scroll leaving us with no completed earrings to sell. Passing 4x 70% in a row is about 24% (close to 1/4). This means on average, we will create a (+5) 1 in about 40x 10% scrolls.

    2. Usually we'd want to collect a bunch of 10% scrolls before we start to scroll which means all the meso are stuck with the scrolls.

    3. Because of that, we have spent over 80mil on 40 scrolls leaving us with lesser meso freedom and potentially missing out on other opportunities.

    4. The by-products are a pain in the ass to sell. They take up our shop slots for a long time and no one really likes buying incomplete earrings other than other scrollers who would only take them at a very low price.

    5. The 5-6 int ones are great but they don't come in big quantities to make up for the 25mil expected cost difference. Now our meso are stuck with them as well because we can't trade them for anything at all, waiting forever in store for people to buy.

    6. Failing on slot 2-4 early puts us in bad meso situation because of how much we've already spent to reach this point and have nothing substantial to sell.


    Making +3 or +4 with 60% and 70% on the other hand are more economically friendly.

    1. We can always make 1 or 2 every few days at low expected production cost of 5-8mil meso.

    2. The damage is minimal at early stages of failures, as compared to over 20mil for failing the 2nd slot after passing 1x 10%.

    3. Spending 80mil here on the other hand means you'd have about 9-10 (+4) earrings ready to 30%, which you actually have a rather good chance of making some completed earrings at this point.

    4. You can scroll them any time a cheap-ass 30% pops out.

    5. You don't have to hold a bunch of expensive scrolls with you for a long time, like you might with 10% scrolls before you starting to scroll, leaving you with more meso freedom.

    6. You spend 25mil lesser expected cost for a completed (+5) earrings as compared to the conventional method which then you have a choice to just chug away all the weaker by-products or sell them (those tma12, 4 int 8ma ones) at extremely cheap price which the newer players will appreciate. I'll take this 25mil any time over trying to sell a few 5-6 int earrings.

    7. We are free to use 60% or 70% for the first few slots when either scroll are low in stock with small cost difference as compared to leaning more towards 70% for the last 4 slots after 1x 10% for a higher chance especially after we have spent so much.


    All these flexibilities makes my method far more superior in my opinion. MapleF16 What do you think?
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2023
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  7. fartsy
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    fartsy Zakum

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  8. OP
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    kiwiz Skelegon

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    Yeah, and those are what I referred as the by-products. The reverse scrolling creates far weaker by-products in exchange for lower production cost for the completed (+5) item which I feel is a good thing. Because we are not burdened from having to sell those things to recover the cost since they worth much less than those by-products created from conventional scrolling.

    In fact, selling by-products created from reverse scrolling counts towards profits. On average, the completed item would’ve covered the production cost + profits already. For the case of my Elemental Wands, TMA 163-164 wands were the by-products and I cleared them at 8-15mil each, and 2-5mil for anything lower than TMA 163. These earnings were not accounted for in my Cost-Sales Table as they took longer time to sell but nevertheless are extra meso.
     
  9. OP
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    In our case, we have to consider the price of each scrolls as well at the time of scrolling, to find the perfect balance between the highest chance at the lowest cost. Because 30% scrolls are pricey for earring for int, we want to utilise them only when it matters the most. We don’t want it to pass on the first 2 slots only to get devalued and ruined by 60% and 70%.

    In the case of my fallen leaf earrings, 7 out of 22 made it to +4, 1 slot. Now they only need to pass 1x 30% for each of them. Even if it failed, we didn’t spend too much on making each of them anyway. But if it passes, the value of the earrings increase by 10 folds. Creating a 3/10 chance to increase the value of an item by 10x sounds really good to me.

    We can put it this way: if we pair each earrings with the scroll, 14m to make into +4 and another 14m for 30% scroll, every 28m has a 3/10 chance of becoming 120m. The expected cost for every pass is 28m/0.3 = ~93.33m. If we have 10 of these pairs and 3 passes, we earn 120m x3 = 360m, with the cost being 28m x10 = 280m, net gain of 360m - 280m = 80m.

    The only thing stopping me from making infinite amount of meso is the scarcity of items and scrolls, and if I make too many of these the value is likely to drop.
     
  10. fartsy
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    Mirrors Game Moderator Staff Member Game Moderator

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    Protip: if the scroll senses your fear it will have a higher likelihood of failing

    Jk, but awesome guide, am a big stats nerd so this was a fascinating read!
     
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  12. fael
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    fael Headless Horseman

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    yeah I dont know heheh
    I dont know if you plan to share but I hope to see your results :]
     
  13. Chris
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    Chris Zakum Retired Staff

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    no jk, I 100% believe this.
     
  14. OP
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    kiwiz
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    kiwiz Skelegon

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    Hmm? I've already shared my results. It's right in the beginning and some at the end.

    I sold those items at 75-90% of the market price so the turnover rate is fast, mostly within 1-24hr. I then use the profit generated from the sales to make new items.

    Overall
    total meso out: ~1.3bil (from earrings, gloves, wands and scrolls)
    total meso in: ~2.1bil (from the items shown in my guide)

    The by-products sold ~200m in total from mix of earrings, gloves and wands.

    The expected returns is somewhere between 130-200% based on the market past 3 weeks.
    Elemental Wand 5-8 has a wider gap due to lower scroll costs and also potentially much higher sales.
     
  15. fael
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    fael Headless Horseman

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    ur next results! lmao if u plan to share more
     
  16. OP
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    kiwiz Skelegon

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    Ahh sure! Once the market replenishes. The items and scrolls are very low at the moment.
     
  17. Slime
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    Slime Pixel Artist Retired Staff

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    Awesome stuff, great read! :D
     
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    Bax Orange Mushroom

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    Good method! I am going to try this whenever i have the funds to make a new weapon perhaps will be profitable too.
     
  19. OP
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    kiwiz Skelegon

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    I’ve added more results at the last section of the first post as I make them.
     
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