The Art of Scrolling: Beating the Odds

kiwiz · Nov 18, 2022

INTRODUCTION.

This guide is self-inspired by one of my own scrolling experiences: Your Latest Accomplishments!

My motivation of scrolling in this guide is to profit in meso. And perhaps to open your mind into exploring other possibilities you've never thought of. To guarantee a profit, the production cost has to be less than the sales. Is that even possible? Isn't scrolling all about luck?

Recently I shared the results from my first profit scrolling experience: Your Latest Accomplishments!
Which I'll display here as well.

Fallen Leaf Earrings:

3 completed TMA 21 Fallen Leaf Earrings out of 22x MA 1 Fallen Leaf Earrings and INT 1 Red Emerald Earrings.

Elemental Wands:

3 most notable Wands out of 35 attempted Wands. A few were TMA 163-165.

TMA Gloves:

3 Completed Gloves from 12 mix of INT 1 Red Marker/Yellow Work Gloves, some INT 3 Dark Noel and INT 4 Dark Arten.

THE REVERSE SCROLLING METHOD.

While I've shared my profit numbers, I did not share my method of scrolling.

You may have noticed in my Cost-Sales table that I didn’t use any 10% scrolls at all. This is due to the scarcity of the items, unlike Single Earrings or Bathrobes which come in unlimited supply.

Also, the amount of 30% scrolls used is less than the number of items. That’s because I used a method which I call "reverse scrolling."

The conventional method is to land the lower-rate scrolls (10%, 30%) first and finish off with higher-rate scrolls (60%, 70%, 100%). My approach is the reverse: I scroll 60% and 70% first, then finish off with 30%.

EXPECTED PRODUCTION COST (CONVENTIONAL VS REVERSE).

Let me show you the calculation of the expected production cost on a 7,000 meso Single Earrings with Earring for INT scrolls:

The top table shows the sequence of scrolling a 10%, followed by 4x 70%.
As compared to the bottom table which shows 4x 70% first, followed by a 30%.

(Note that the average price of the scrolls were during the time of scrolling and may not reflect the current ML's market.)

With the same results at +5, there's a production cost difference of about 25mil mesos, with the reverse method being cheaper. Although this approach creates weaker by-products from the failed attempts, it certainly beats having to put in extra effort to get rid of them if you're planning to sell.

Additionally, we incur much lower losses in the early stages of failure for the first four slots using reverse scrolling. This allows us to prepare multiple +4 items at a low cost and wait for cheaper 30% scrolls for the final slot.

At the time of posting, I can sell TMA 20 Single Earrings for 90-100mil mesos, while identical earrings are listed above 120 mil mesos in the market. This gives me a competitive edge in pricing and still yields an expected profit of 15-25mil meso for each completed +5 earring.

OMG?!! Wait... Does this means profit is guaranteed?!! Not exactly. Luck still plays a role, but the odds are in our favor!

Repeating this process over a large quantity will likely regress towards these expected values, provided you have enough mesos to invest and the market has a sufficient supply of scrolls (and items in some cases) selling at reasonable prices. So do your homework on the current market trend first!

Also, if you introduce too many similar items into the market, their value will certainly drop.

This is only possible for certain items and scrolls due to the current state of ML's economy, which can change over time. By then, you may also explore other items to be profitable by applying a similar scrolling method. Just do the math.

Again, keep in mind that my motivation is to profit and NOT to make godly items. It doesn't matter what the item is as long as it's profitable. This method WILL NOT help you create top tier items.

If these are the stats you’d like to settle for, then you can make them at a lower cost than what the market is selling them for. Or, if you simply want to make and keep them for yourself, you can spend less meso than what the market offers.

OTHER ADVANTAGES OF REVERSE SCROLLING.

In this post The Art of Scrolling: Beating the Odds, I listed the advantages of reverse scrolling method over the conventional method other than the cost, which I've rewrote and added them to here as well.

If we refer to the expected production cost from the above for 1x 10% -> 4x 70%, we are, on average, expected to spend 100mil meso to make a TMA 20 (+5) earrings plus some other by-products (notably the 5-6 INT ones) from the failed ones.

1. Because scrolls has a limited supply at any one point, there's a good chance of us running out of 10% scrolls, leaving us with no completed earrings to sell.
Passing 4x 70% in a row is about 24% (close to 1/4). This means on average, we're expected to create a (+5) 1 in about 40x 10% scrolls.

2. Usually we'd want to collect a bunch of 10% scrolls before we start to scroll.
Which means we would've spent over 80mil on 40x 10% scrolls leaving us with lesser meso freedom and potentially missing out on other opportunities if our meso is limited.

3. The by-products are a pain in the ass to sell. They take up our shop slots for a long time and no one really likes buying incomplete earrings other than other scrollers who would only take them at a very low price.
The 5-6 int ones are great but they don't come in big quantities to consistently make up for the 25mil expected cost difference.
Now our meso are stuck with them as well because we can't trade them for anything at all, waiting forever in store for people to buy.

4. Failing on slot 2-4 early puts us in bad meso situation because of how much we've already spent on 10% scrolls to reach this point and have nothing substantial to sell to recover the meso.

Making +3 or +4 with 60% and 70% on the other hand are more economically friendly.

1. We can always make 1 or 2 every few days at low expected production cost of about 5-8mil meso.
The damage is minimal at early stages of failures, as compared to over 20mil for failing the 2nd slot after passing 1x 10%.

2. You don't have to hold a bunch of expensive scrolls with you for a long time, like you might with 10% scrolls before you starting to scroll, leaving you with more meso freedom.
Spending 80mil here on the other hand means you'd have about 9-10 (+4) earrings ready to 30%, which you actually have a rather good chance of making 1 or more completed earrings at this point.

3. You spend 25mil lesser expected cost for a completed (+5) earrings as compared to the conventional method. You have the choice to dump all the weaker by-products or sell them (those tma12, 4 int 8ma ones) at extremely cheap price which newer players will appreciate.
I'll take this 25mil any time over trying to sell a few 5-6 int earrings, if any at all.

4. We are free to use 60% or 70% for the first few slots when either scroll are low in stock with small cost difference as compared to leaning more towards 70% for the last 4 slots after 1x 10% to maximize the chance, especially after we have spent so much.
We can scroll the last slot any time when 30% scrolls drop in price or when a cheap-ass one pops out.

RATE OF CONSECUTIVE SUCCESS + EXPECTED SCROLL USAGE.

The 2 tables below show you the rate of consecutive passes and the expected scroll usage for 60% and 70% to give you some idea on roughly how many scrolls you need to prepare for passing the first 4 slots.

60% scroll rate and expected usage:

1 Slot: 60%, expect to use about 1-2 scrolls
2 Slot: 36%, expect to use about 4-5 scrolls
3 Slot: 21.6%, expect to use about 9 scrolls
4 Slot: 12.96%, expect to use about 16-17 scrolls

70% scroll rate and expected usage:

1 Slot: 70%, expect to use about 1-2 scrolls
2 Slot: 49%, expect to use about 3-4 scrolls
3 Slot: 34.3%, expect to use about 6-7 scrolls
4 Slot: 24.01%, expect to use about 10-11 scrolls

I used a mixed 60% and 70% for my TMA 21 earrings so it’s closer to 17-20% to pass 4 slots.

If you look back at my TMA Earrings’ Cost-Sales Table, I’ve used 7x 30% scrolls. That’s because 7 out of 22 earrings made it to +4, and 3 out of those 7 passed the 30%.

My result actually exceeded the expectation of 5.28/22 and 2.1/7 so I got pretty lucky here. I would still profit even if I made 2x TMA 21 instead of 3x.

1 MA Fallen Leaf Earrings and 1 INT Red Emerald Earrings cost an average of 1.5mil meso each. With that, here's the production cost comparison:

The top table shows the sequence of scrolling a 10%, followed by 4x 70%.
As compared to the bottom table which shows 4x 70% first, followed by a 30%.
Now with a more production cost from the earrings of 1.5mil meso each.

With the new cost of earrings, there's even a larger cost difference of about 67mil meso. My TMA 21 Earrings were sold at 120-125mil meso each. An increased in expected profit to 25-30mil meso as compared to TMA 20 Single Earrings' 15-25mil, while being praised as a very fair and reasonable price by many.

For some comparisons, TMA 24 earrings were sold/selling between 200-220mil at that point of time. TMA 22 earrings were listed above 150mil meso. No one was willing to sell at a lower price given how expensive it is to make them with conventional methods.

CATCHING THE CONSECUTIVE SUCCESSES.

How often does 2, 3 or 4 successes happen in a row? I actually don't know the exact math to it. But I do have some visuals to help me make decisions sometimes. These cells reroll every time there is a change in the sheet. I can press Delete on an empty cell and it will reroll.

100 rolls of 60%:

It's fairly easy to pass 3 in a row if you try over a large amount. But there will be times where the second half of column 1 happens. And bad times when column 3 happens.

100 rolls of 70%:

70% scrolls are better at passing 4 in a row. But you could also mix 2:2 with 60% and 70%.

100 rolls of 30%:

This is the 1 that determines your true success. It's still better than having to go through 4 gruesome slots after passing the first slot with 10%/30%.

It's also pretty hard to catch 2 in a row, which you could try for more profits at a much higher risks.

CREATE YOUR OWN FORTUNE - PROPOSED SCROLLING PATH.

For the case of TMA Earrings, here are 2 scrolling paths I'd recommend you to go into:

Pre-scrolling prep: create a bunch of +3 with 60% and 70% scrolls.
Friendlier path (left): 70% -> 30% -> TMA 20 Earrings -> ~90-100mil
Riskier path (right): 30% -> 30% -> TMA 25 Earrings -> ~210-240mil

The friendlier path has an expected production cost less than the sale (~75m, shown in the above table).

The risker path has an expected production cost slightly more than the sale (~259m, shown in the below table).
You might create some 17 TMA earrings which can probably sell around 30-40m to recover 2x 30% scrolls cost.
If you hit 2x 30% earlier than expected into your scrolling, you can consider switching to friendlier path for the remaining earrings.

Expected Production Cost for TMA 25 Single Earrings:

The top table shows the sequence of scrolling a 10% and a 30%, followed by 3x 70%.
As compared to the bottom table which shows 3x 70% first, followed by 2x 30%.

Expected production cost difference of about 96mil meso. Look at how bad conventional scrolling is. Now you know why you're bad at scrolling.

EXPLORE AND GET CREATIVE, ALSO, END.

With the knowledge I've shared with you, feel free to further explore and get creative maybe. I've applied this method to Gloves, since they have 5 slots as well, and similar method to Wands, which I won't go into details. You can figure them out yourself.

Lastly, don't overlook 2/3 INT 4 slots earrings! Usually a clean 2 INT Red Emerald sells at 5mil meso. Someone might be selling a 2 INT 4 slots at 1mil meso or below. Grab them!

If you have 5 of them, you actually have 10 total slots(2 each, from 4 slots to 2 slots) to try any 10% scrolls you have lying around on them. If any of it lands, it brings you to TMA 10-11 with 2-3 slots, which is better than a TMA 9 (+3) 2 slots Single Earrings. That's also where you will start your friendlier or riskier path.

Here's 2 of them that were made from the many 4 slots earrings I've collected:

Here are some that were salvaged from the by-products that failed the 3rd slot:

I had plenty of (+2) 4 INT, 6 MA, 2 Slots earrings that couldn't even sell for 500k.
I decided to throw each of them a 10% scroll that I've collected overtime for less than 2m each and 3/12 passed! 2/3 made it on 30% scrolls.

Some other stuff I've made with similar method:

TMA 172 Wand 6 but no purple text.

Thank you for reading and all the best for your scrolling endeavors.
(don't blame me if you have really bad luck for your runs. )

NEW CREATIONS.

I share my new creations and the costs into making them here. I’ll also update the sales prices once they are sold.

Most of them I’d try to scroll into +4 as I acquired them and wait for the 30% scrolls in the market to scroll the last 1-2 slots.

<< 21 TMA Red Emerald Earring >>
9x Earrings mix of Fallen Leaf and Red Emerald: 10m
18x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 16m
2x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 26m
Production Cost: 52m, Expected Sale Price: 100-120m (Sold for 110m)

Same strategy using the reverse scrolling method. Passed +4 with 70% scrolls and 30% the last.
2 out of 9 attempts made it to +4. 1 out of the 2 passed 30%.

<< 170 TMA Wand 6 >>
8x Wands mix of Wand 5-8: 12m
11x Wand for MA 60% Scroll: 1.6m
19x Wand for MA 70% Scroll: 6.6m
5x Wand for MA 30% Scroll: 25m
Production Cost: 45.2m, Expected Sale Price: 90-100m (Sold for 90m)

Clean 142-144 TMA Wands are cheap, or at least buy them cheap.
Each 1-2m, pass at least +4 on the first 5 slots, then you will have the last 2-3 slots to try your 30% with.
Passed 2 and you will get 170-172 TMA wand.
This is more risky as you will have to pass 2 slots but the prep to +4 is incredibly cheap.

<< 15 TMA Yellow Work Gloves & 22 TMA Dark Arten >>
11x mix of Yellow Work Gloves and Mage Gloves: 20m
27x Gloves for MA 70% Scroll: 76m
6x Gloves for MA 30% Scroll: 70m
3x Clean Slate Scroll 20%: 24m
Production Cost: 190m, Expected Sale Price: 100-120m for Yellow Work Gloves (Sold for 110m)
Some other by-product gloves sold for 44m

I kept Arten for myself :> I estimate the price value to be 200-250m-ish, given I’ve sold my previous 20 TMA Red Marker that I’ve replaced with Arten for 360m.

I failed the last slot the first time,
CSS20 passed,
GFMA30 failed,
CSS20 failed,
CSS20 passed,
GFMA30 passed!

<< 22 TMA Fallen Leaf & 22 TMA Red Emerald Earrings >>
7x mix of 1-2 MA/INT Fallen Leaf & Red Emerald Earrings: 18m
3x +2, 2 slots earrings from the previous scrolling session: 0m
19x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 20m
3x Earring for INT 10% Scroll: 7m
3x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 43m
Production Cost: 88m, Expected Sale Price: 120-140m per earrings
(Red Emerald sold for 130m, kept Fallen Leaf for myself)

I’m actually very lucky on this one.
2 out of 7 made it to +4,
1 of the 3 earrings from the previous session passed 10%,
2 of the 3 passed 30%.

<< 22 TMA Fallen Leaf >>
11x mix of 1-2 MA/INT Fallen Leaf & Red Emerald Earrings: 23m
6x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 6m
15x Earring for INT 10% Scroll: 15m
1x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 19m
Production Cost: 63m, Expected Sale Price: 120-140m (Sold for 140m)

Purple always sells at good price

<< 170 TMA Wand 6 >>
6x Wands mix of Wand 6 & 8: 9m
5x Wand for MA 60% Scroll: 1m
13x Wand for MA 70% Scroll: 4.6m
2x Wand for MA 10% Scroll: 1m
5x Wand for MA 30% Scroll: 27m
Production Cost: 42.6m, Expected Sale Price: 90-100m (Sold for 90m)

<< 171 TMA Wand 7 >>
2x Wands mix of Wand 6 & 7: 3.4m
6x Wand for MA 70% Scroll: 2.1m
1x Wand for MA 10% Scroll: 500k
3x Wand for MA 30% Scroll: 18.1m
Production Cost: 24.1m, Expected Sale Price: 140-160m (Sold for 155m)

First decent Wand 7
Got this clean TMA 143 wand at 1.5m, turned into goodness.
Passed +4 with 70%, scrolled the last 3 slots with 30%, 2 passed.

Abandon if you didn't get +4 in the first 5 slots. You'd only spent 2-3m-ish.
Clean TMA 142-144 are pretty cheap sometimes, like 1-2m. They can be made into TMA 170-172.

You don't want to spend a bunch in the beginning to pass 2x30% only to get ruined by 60/70% and get less than TMA 170.

<< 22 TMA Red Emerald >>
14x mix of 2 MA/INT Fallen Leaf & Red Emerald Earrings: 35m
14x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 16m
10x Earring for INT 60% Scroll: 8m
4x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 72m
Production Cost: 131m, Expected Sale Price: 120-140m (Sold for 130m)

Not so lucky this time... also expensive 30% scrolls.

<< 24 TMA Red Emerald >>
12x mix of 2 INT Red Emerald Earrings: 45m
29x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 42m (70% expensive now)
2x Earring for INT 60% Scroll: 1.4m
4x Earring for INT 10% Scroll: 8.8m
2x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 30m
Production Cost: 127.2m, Expected Sale Price: 180-220m (Sold for 190m)
plus a TMA 14 sold for 15m

I used up all my meso from the previous sale to make dis.

I also used my 30% scroll on the wrong earrings.
Was suppose to use on a +4, 1 slot but I accidentally used it on a +3, 1 slot
Otherwise I'd have another 22 TMA Red Emerald Earrings
But then, it might not have passed on a different earrings.
Not sure how much is this worth, perhaps 40-50m.

Maybe I could try CSS20 this and potentially go for a 27 TMA

<< 22 TMA Red Emerald >>
4x mix of 1-2 INT Red Emerald Earrings: 11m
5x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 7.7m
2x Earring for INT 60% Scroll: 1.4m
2x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 30m
Production Cost: 50.1m, Expected Sale Price: 110-130m (Sold for 120m)

Merry Christmas!

<< 22 TMA Red Emerald >>
6x mix of 1-2 MA/INT Fallen Leaf & Red Emerald: 8.5m
9x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 10m
6x Earring for INT 60% Scroll: 3.6m
1x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 15m
Production Cost: 37.1m, Expected Sale Price: 110-130m (Sold for 120m)

<< 21 TMA Fallen Leaf >>
5x 1 MA Fallen Leaf: 3m
5x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 5m
4x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 2m
1x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 14.4m
Production Cost: 28.4m, Expected Sale Price: 80-110m (Sold for 90m)

Still works after 6 months! I got lucky on first 30% scroll.

<< 21 TMA Red Emerald >>
7x mix of 1-2 MA/INT Fallen Leaf & Red Emerald: 11.5m
11x Earring for INT 70% Scroll: 8.8m
7x Earring for INT 60% Scroll: 4.5m
1x Earring for INT 10% Scroll: 1.6m
2x Earring for INT 30% Scroll: 27.9m
Production Cost: 54.3m, Expected Sale Price: 90-120m (Sold for 90m)

The current market is pretty bare. Think I'm gona stop making for now. The scrolling method still works in our favor for the value of INT earrings.

19 NOV 2022 - v1.0
23 NOV 2022 - added "OTHER ADVANTAGES OF REVERSE SCROLLING." section
28 NOV 2022 - added 2 new creations and their production costs - earrings & wand
29 NOV 2022 - added 2 new creations and their production costs - gloves
29 NOV 2022 - added 2 new creations and their production costs - earrings
04 DEC 2022 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - fallen leaf earrings
06 DEC 2022 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - wand 6
07 DEC 2022 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - wand 7
21 DEC 2022 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - red emerald earrings
24 DEC 2022 - added 2 new creations and their production costs - red emerald earrings
25 DEC 2022 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - red emerald earrings
31 DEC 2022 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - red emerald earrings
25 MAY 2023 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - fallen leaf earrings
27 MAY 2023 - added 1 new creation and its production cost - red emerald earrings
30 SEP 2023 - updated all images from Discord link to forum upload

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The Art of Scrolling: Beating the Odds

kiwiz Skelegon

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The Art of Scrolling: Beating the Odds

kiwiz Skelegon

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